湖南双季晚稻寒露风初日的气候演变特征及其预测模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 寒露风为9月日平均气温≤20℃且持续3d或以上的低温天气过程，是影响湖南双季晚稻生产的主要农业气象灾害。利用1961-2013年湖南19个气象站的日平均气温资料，将湖南分为湘北、湘中、湘南3个区域，统计各区历年第一次寒露风的开始日期，构建各区寒露风初日时间序列，分析其变化特征并利用均生函数方法建立各区寒露风初日预测模型。结果表明：近53a湖南各区域寒露风初日年代际变化特征显著，寒露风初日平均在9月下旬中后期；最早出现日期为：湘北、湘中在9月上旬初，湘南在9月上旬末；最迟出现日期为：湘北在10月中旬前期，湘中、湘南在10月中旬后期。影响双季晚稻产量的寒露风发生频率为：湘北约3a两遇、湘中约2a一遇、湘南约5a两遇。基于均生函数建立的湖南寒露风初日预测模型，历史拟合率为：湘北、湘中92%、湘南94%；2011-2014年预测结果表明模型对湖南寒露风初日具有较强的预测能力。

关键词: 湖南晚稻, 抽穗扬花期, 寒露风, 气候变化, 均生函数, 预测

Abstract: Autumn Low Temperature （ALT） is low temperature weather processes which daily average temperature during September less than or equal to 20℃ and continues more than three days， meanwhile it is main agricultural meteorological disasters which affect the double season late rice production in Hunan province. Based on daily temperature data from meteorological stations in Hunan during 1961-2013， the climate changing characteristics of beginning date of ALT in different regions of Hunan were analyzed， and predict model of beginning date of ALT was built by using the mean generating function based on the time series of beginning date of ALT from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that beginning date of ALT in different regions presents significant interdecadal variation during last 53 years. Average beginning date of ALT appears in later period of late September. The earliest time of northern and central Hunan appears in the beginning of early September， and which of southern Hunan appears in the late of early September. The latest time of northern Hunan appears in the early stage of the middle of October， and which of southern and central Hunan appears in the late of middle October. Frequency of occurrence of ALT which affects the double crop late rice production in southern Hunan met twice in three years， which in central Hunan met once in two years and in southern Hunan met twice in five years. The results of predict model of beginning date of ALT which had been built by using the mean generating function showed that the historical fitting rate was 92% in northern and central Hunan and which was 94% in southern Hunan. The predict results during 2011 to 2014 showed that the mean generating function model has strong predictive ability for beginning date of Autumn Low Temperature in Hunan．

Key words: Late rice in Hunan, Heading and flowering period, Autumn low temperature, Climate changing, Mean generating function, Predict

罗伯良，李易芝. 湖南双季晚稻寒露风初日的气候演变特征及其预测模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(03): 338-345.

LUO Boliang，LI Yizhi. limatic Characteristics and Prediction of Autumn Low Temperature During Late Rice Growth Stage in Hunan[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(03): 338-345.

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