气候变化对河南省夏玉米主栽品种发育期的影响模拟

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为模拟气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响，本文将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，分区进行主栽品种遗传参数调试验证，确定各区域品种平均遗传参数。将未来气候变化情景(A2和B2)下，2020s、2050s和2080s各时段的温度和降水增量加上基准值，模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米发育期的影响。模型调参验证结果表明：各区域品种遗传参数存在一定差异，豫西地区当前种植品种播种-开花所需积温高于其它地区，而豫北和豫东当前种植品种开花-成熟所需积温高于其它地区；各区开花期调参和验证误差RMSE为2～4d，相对误差NRMSE均小于10%；各区域成熟期调参误差RMSE均小于4d，验证误差RMSE为3～7d，除豫西区外，各区域调参及验证期间的成熟期相对误差NRMSE均小于10%。表明CERES-Maize模型对河南省各区域夏玉米发育期模拟精度均较高。未来气候变化影响模拟结果表明：A2和B2情景下，夏玉米营养生长期平均缩短4.7d和3.1d，全生育期平均缩短12.9d和8.6d。夏玉米生育期缩短日数与各时段增温幅度趋势一致，全省4个区域中豫西区生育期日数缩短最多。

关键词: CERES-Maize模型, 气候变化, 发育期, 夏玉米, 模拟

Abstract: The study aimed to model the impacts of climate change on maize phenology. Henan province was divided into four agro-climatic zones and the genetic parameters of representative maize varieties in each zone were determined by calibrate and validate CERES-Maize model. Thereafter, the impact of future climate change on maize phenology was modeled based on future climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by adding the temperature and precipitation increments simulated by regional climate model (PRECIS) to the baseline (1961-1990). The study results showed that there were large spatial differences between genetic parameters of representative maize varieties in four zones. Required thermal time from sowing to flowering of maize varieties in western Henan was higher than other zones. However, required thermal time from flowering to maturity of maize varieties in northern and eastern Henan was higher than other two zones. Days from sowing to flowering were accurately simulated with RMSE <4.0d and NRMSE <10% for both the calibration and validation periods. RMSE between simulated and observed maturing date was lower than 4d for calibration period and 3-7d for validation period. NRMSE between simulated and observed maturing date was lower than 10% in all the zones except for western Henan. Simulated vegetative growth period and whole growth period of summer maize shortened by 4.7d and 12.9d on average under A2 scenario, and 3.1d and 8.6d on average under B2 scenario, respectively. The decrease in the length of maize growing period was in accordance with the increase in growing period temperature in different regions in Henan province, with the longest decrease in western Henan.

Key words: CERES-Maize model, Climate change, Phenology, Summer maize, Simulation

李树岩，王靖，余卫东，陈忠民. 气候变化对河南省夏玉米主栽品种发育期的影响模拟[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(04): 479-488.

LI Shu-yan, WANG Jing, YU Wei-dong，CHEN Zhong-min. Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology of Representative Maize Varieties in Henan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 479-488.

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