ENSO事件对山东省区域降水量及干旱指数的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据山东省18个气象站点1961-2013年的逐月气温和降水量资料及由此计算的干旱指数SPEI，分析该区气温、降水量和SPEI与同期海温距平（SSTA）指数及ENSO事件的关系。结果表明：（1）近53a来山东省气温呈“降低—升高—降低—升高”的波动增长趋势（0.26℃·10a-1）（P＜0.05），但与ENSO事件并无显著相关性。（2）山东省年降水量波动较大，并以15.32mm·10a-1的速率呈显著下降趋势（P＜0.05），且与ENSO事件强度呈显著负相关（P＜0.05），中、强等级ENSO事件对降水量的影响更明显。ENSO暖事件对降水量的滞后影响表现为减少其后期1～2个月的降水量，冷事件则增加其后期0～4个月的降水量。（3）近53a山东省发生干旱的次数、范围和强度从20世纪80年代显著增加，年SPEI值呈缓慢递减趋势，共发生5次轻旱和9次中旱。干旱站次比呈波动上升趋势，共出现11a全域性干旱、4a区域性干旱、6a部分地区干旱和17a局部地区干旱。（4）ENSO事件强度与干旱强度（SPEI）呈显著负相关（P＜0.05），而与干旱发生范围呈显著正相关（P＜0.05）。

关键词: 干旱, 标准化降水蒸散指数, ENSO, 年降水量, 相关性

Abstract: Based on the monthly temperature, precipitation data and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI) of 18 meteorological stations in Shandong province, the impact of ENSO events on climate change and drought variation were analyzed during recent 53 years in the study area. The results showed that：(1)the mean annual temperature of Shandong province was experienced fluctuation growth trend with a speed of 0.26℃·10y-1 (P＜0.05), but it was not proved a significant relationship with ENSO events. (2)The annual precipitation of Shandong province was also experienced fluctuation growth with a speed of -15.32mm·10y-1 (P＜0.05) and tested a significant negative correlation with the intensity of ENSO events, and the impact of moderate and strong ENSO events were more obvious. The monthly precipitation was lagged 1 to 2 months and 0 to 4 months by warm and cold ENSO events respectively. (3)The SPEI of Shandong province was decreased slowly nearly 53 years, while the frequency and intensity of drought were increased significantly from the 1980s. There were 11 years of domain drought, 4 years of regional drought, 6 years of partial-local drought and 17 years of local drought totally, and the spatial extent of the drought was gradually increased. (4)The intensity of ENSO events and SPEI was examined a significant negative correlation (P＜0.05), and a positive correlation with the drought extent (P＜0.05).

Key words: Drought, Standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), ENSO, Annual precipitation, Correlation analysis

马露，杨东，钱大文. ENSO事件对山东省区域降水量及干旱指数的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(06): 666-673.

MA Lu, YANG Dong, QIAN Da-wen. Impact of ENSO Event on Precipitation and Drought Index in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(06): 666-673.

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