1960-2015年淮河流域初终霜日时空变化分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.07.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于淮河流域1960-2015年61个气象站点地面0cm日最低气温资料，采用线性倾向估计、反距离加权、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动T检验方法，分析近56a淮河流域初霜日、终霜日和无霜期的时空变化特征及突变年份。结果显示：（1）研究期内，淮河流域平均初霜日期、终霜日期和无霜期分别以2.15、2.49、4.38d·10a-1的速率呈推迟、提前、延长的趋势（P＜0.01），其中，在20世纪90年代的变化最为显著（P＜0.01），速率分别为16.38、5.34、20.6d·10a-1。（2）平均初霜日期在空间上呈北早、南迟，山区早、平原迟的分布；86.9%的站点初霜日期呈显著推迟趋势（P＜0.05）。终霜日期呈西南早、东北迟，平原早、山区迟的分布；83.6%的站点通过0.05水平的显著性检验，以3.44～5.92d·10a-1的速率呈提早趋势。无霜期随纬度和海拔升高而缩短；93.4%的站点通过0.05水平的显著性检验，变化率为3.56～7.59d·10a-1，无霜期整体延长。（3）11月8日线、4月1日线、220d等值线位置较其它各气候基准期和各年代分别偏北约1个和2个纬距，在32°N和34°N附近的偏北趋势最为明显，佐证了该区初霜日期整体推迟、终霜日期整体提前、无霜期整体延长的趋势。（4）初霜日期、终霜日期和无霜期分别在2002年、1995年和1998年发生突变。

关键词: 淮河流域, 初霜日, 终霜日, 无霜期

Abstract: Ground 0cm daily minimum temperature collected at 61 meteorological stations were used to identify the first and last frost dates. Linear trend estimation was used to describe the trends in the first frost date, last frost date and the length of the frost-free period. The Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T-test and the IDW method were used to analyze the mutation year and spatial variations of the first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period in the Huaihe River Basin. The results showed that: (1) with the speed of 2.15, 2.49, 4.38d·10y?1 (P＜0.01) of the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period, respectively, showing the trends in delaying, advance and extension. The rates of change in the three groups were the most significant in the 1990s, at 16.38, 5.34 and 20.6d·10y-1 (P＜0.01), respectively. (2) The first frost date was spatially late in the south, early in the north, early in the mountain and late in the plain. There were 86.9% of the stations postponing significantly (P＜0.05). The last frost date was early in the southwest, late in northeast, early in the plain and late in the mountain, 83.6% stations showed an early trend with the rate of 3.44-5.92d·10y-1 (P＜0.05). The frost-free period decreased with the increase of latitude and altitude. 93.4% stations passed the 0.05 significant level test, and the extension rate of change was 3.56-7.59d·10y-1 (P＜0.05). (3) The locations of the contour lines of 8 November, 1 April and 220 days were slightly northerly about 1° and 2° than the other climate reference periods and the decadal, with the most obvious trend being around 32°N and 34°N, which corroborated the 2nd conclusion. (4) Mutations of first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period occurred in 2002, 1995 and 1998, respectively.

Key words: Huaihe River Basin, First frost date, Last frost date, Frost-free period

马尚谦，张勃，唐敏，马彬，杨梅，梁晶晶，张佳琦，加力戈. 1960-2015年淮河流域初终霜日时空变化分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(07): 468-478.

MA Shang-qian, ZHANG Bo, TANG Min, MA Bin, YANG Mei, LIANG Jing-jing, ZHANG Jia-qi, . Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Changes of Frost Date in the Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(07): 468-478.

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