1960-2012年淮河流域极端气温变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.07.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1960-2012年淮河流域28个气象站点的逐日最高气温和最低气温观测资料，选取12个具有代表性的极端气温指数，采用线性倾向法、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析法研究淮河流域极端气温指数的变化特征。结果表明：（1）研究区冷夜、冰冻、霜冻日数分别以4.08、0.78、5.10d·10a-1（P＜0.05）的速率下降，暖夜、夏季、热夜分别以1.87、2.08、2.82 d·10a-1（P＜0.05）的速率上升，日最高（低）气温的极小值、日最低气温的极高值的变化率分别为0.34（0.62）、1.80℃·10a-1（P＜0.05），而冷昼、暖昼以及日最高气温极高值的变化并不显著。（2）28个气象站点极端气温指数的变化在空间分布上存在着较大的差异，冷指数中冷昼、冷夜、冰冻和霜冻日数（日最高和最低气温的极低值）在淮河中下游地区的降幅（升幅）较大，上游地区站点的变化则相对较小。暖指数变化较大的站点主要分布在流域的东部和南部地区，西部与北部地区站点的变化不够明显。（3）冷指数的突变主要发生在20世纪80年代，而暖指数的突变则主要发生在2000年左右，与冷指数的突变相比，暖指数的变化表现出后延性、稳定性和持续性的特征。（4）冷、暖指数分别存在着4类和3类尺度的时间变化规律，暖指数的周期变化较冷指数更具稳定性，尤以10a时间尺度下的周期变化最为典型。

关键词: 极端气温, 趋势变化, 空间差异, 突变检验, 小波分析, 淮河流域

Abstract: Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 28 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2012, linear trend estimation Mann-Kendall test mutations and wavelet analysis were used to analyze extreme temperature changes. Twelve indices of extreme temperature were included. The results showed that: (1) cool night, ice days and frost days displayed declining trend at rates of 4.08, 0.78 and 5.10d·10y-1(P＜0.05) respectively, warm nights, summer days and tropical nights exhibited rising trend at rates of 1.87, 2.08 and 2.82d·10y-1(P＜0.05), the trends for annual maximum (minimum) value of daily minimum and annual minimum value of daily maximum range were 0.34(0.62) and 1.80℃·10y-1(P＜0.05), while cool days, warm days and annual maximum value of daily maximum range were not significant. (2) Spatial distribution of linear tread in extreme temperature indices in Huaihe River Basin had big differences. In general, cool days, cool nights, ice days, frost days and annual maximum (minimum) value of daily minimum were showed obviously positive (negative) trends in Middle and Lower Huaihe River Region, but the change in Upper Huaihe River Region were not obvious at all. The range of variation in warm indices in the South and East of Huaihe River Basin were more sensitive than the North and West. (3) The time points of abrupt change for cold indices were mainly concentrated in 1980s, while the time points of abrupt change for warm indices were happened around 2000. Compared with cold indices, the mutation of warm indices showed the characteristics of ductility, stability and continuity. (4) There were 4 classes time variation of cold indices when the warm indices had 3 kinds of scale. The period of cold indices was more stability than the warm indices, especially for the time scale under ten cycles.

Key words: Extreme temperature, Trend variations, Spatial difference, Mann-Kendall, Wavelet analysis, Huaihe river basin

谢志祥，李亚男，秦耀辰，张艳平. 1960-2012年淮河流域极端气温变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(07): 407-416.

XIE Zhi-xiang，LI Ya-nan，QIN Yao-chen，ZHANG Yan-ping. Evolution Characteristics of the Extreme Temperature in Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2012[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(07): 407-416.

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