全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国实际蒸散发时空变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.05.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

蒸散发是水文循环的关键过程，研究升温背景下的蒸散发对水资源综合管理有着重要意义。基于17个全球气候模式1961?2100年逐月蒸散发输出，分析了全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下，中国实际蒸散发时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）全球升温1.5℃，年实际蒸散发呈现由东南沿海向西北内陆递减态势。与基准期1986-2005年相比，中国年实际蒸散发约增加4.4%，其中，西北诸河流域增长率最大，达7.7%。季节尺度上，冬季实际蒸散发增长速率最快，约5.2%。（2）全球升温2.0℃，中国实际蒸散发比1986?2005年上升7.8%，南方流域增长速率比北方流域小，珠江流域仅增长3.9%，实际蒸散发增长最为迅猛的辽河流域和西北诸河流域中部增长率达10%。春冬两季中国蒸散发增加最明显，达8.3%。（3）与全球升温1.5℃情景相比，全球平均气温额外增加0.5℃可能导致中国实际蒸散发增加3.4%。其中，西南诸河西北部、西北诸河西南部及辽河流域增加明显，而西北诸河东北部和西北部等地微弱减少。春季蒸散发增长速率最大，秋季最小。随着全球变暖，中国实际蒸散发呈现上升趋势，可能加剧区域干旱事件，对农业生产带来不利影响。

关键词: 蒸散发, 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 十大流域, 气候变化

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle, and understanding it's changing patterns in the warming world is of great significance to the integrated water resources management. Monthly evapotranspiration outputs from 17 global climate models for 1961?2100 are used to analyze spatial and temporal changes of actual evapotranspiration over China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios. The results showed that: (1) In the 1.5℃ warming level, annual actual evapotranspiration in China will show a spatial pattern of decrease from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland. Actual evapotranspiration over China is projected to 4.4% higher than in the reference period of 1986-2005, with the highest growth rate of 7.7% in the Northwest River Basin. Seasonally, increase of actual evapotranspiration will be obvious in winter, reaching at about 5.2%. (2) In the 2.0℃ warming, annual actual evapotranspiration over China will increase by 7.8% with relative to the reference period. The growth rate in the river basins in southern China is less than that in the north. Increase of actual evapotranspiration in the Pearl River Basin will be about 3.9%, but possibly approaching 10% in the Liaohe River Basin in northeast China and the central Northwest River Basin. On seasonal scale, the highest increase of actual evapotranspiration by 8.3% will be in spring and winter over China. (3) Relative to the 1.5℃ level, annual actual evapotranspiration will increase by about 3.4% for an additional 0.5℃ global warming scenario in China. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase obviously in northwest of the Southwest River Basin, southwest of the Northwest River Basin and the Liaohe River Basin, but might be slightly reduced in northeast and northwest parts of the Northwest River Basin. Seasonally, growth rate will be high in spring but comparatively less in autumn. The projected result that the actual evapotranspiration might show an upward trend in China with the increase of global mean temperature indicates aggravation of regional droughts in future, which might bring adverse impacts on agricultural production.

Key words: Evapotranspiration, 1.5℃ warming, 2.0℃ warming, Ten river basins, Climate change

苏布达，周建，王艳君，陶辉，高超，刘俸霞，李修仓，姜彤 . 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国实际蒸散发时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(05): 293-303.

SU Bu-da, ZHOU Jian, WANG Yan-jun, TAO Hui, GAO Chao, LIU Feng-xia, LI Xiu-cang, . Spatial and Temporal Variation of Actual Evapotranspiration in China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(05): 293-303.

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