Precipitation Variation and Its Suitability for Winter Wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Region Under Climate Change

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.009

Abstract

Abstract: The daily 0.25 × 0.25 degree gridded meteorological data under A1B climate scenario (1951-2100) extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 was interpolated to station location by bilinear interpolation, daily meteorological data of 83 stations from 1971 to 2000 in Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region was used to correct scenario data, which was divided into five periods (1951-1980, 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to calculate precipitation suitability for winter wheat in different growth periods and to analyze its spatial and temporal variations. The results showed that under warm and humid climate scenarios, the mean precipitation and precipitation suitability of main growth periods was better in the south than that of in the north. The precipitation was insufficient from turning green to jointing stage and ample from heading to maturity stage, the precipitation suitability was higher from turning green to jointing stage and from heading to maturity stage and lower from jointing to heading stage. Both precipitation and precipitation suitability fluctuated in positive phase with time, the precipitation suitability increased with the precipitation increasing. Both precipitation and precipitation suitability showed an increasing trend in the north while decreasing in the south from turning green to jointing stage, a fluctuating trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing from jointing to heading stage, a relative steady trend after decreasing from heading to maturity stage. Winter wheat planting area should be expanded slightly in the northern Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region and keep the current state or be reduced slightly in the southern Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region in the future considering the impact of global warming.

Key words: Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region, Winter wheat, RegCM3, Precipitation, Precipitation suitability

SHEN Shuang-he, CHU Rong-hao, LV Hou-quan, LI Meng, SHAO Li-ying. Precipitation Variation and Its Suitability for Winter Wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Region Under Climate Change[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 454-464.

References

[1] Wang E, Chen C, Yu Q. Modeling the response of wheat and maize productivity to climate variability and irrigation in the North China Plain[C]. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, 2009: 2742-2748.
[2] 秦大河, Thomas Stocker, 沈永平, 等. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1): 1-6.
Qin D H, Thomas S, Shen Y P, et al. Highlights of the IPCC working groupⅠfifth assessment report[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(1): 1-6. (in Chinese)
[3] 赵俊芳, 郭建平, 马玉平, 等. 气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策[J]. 应用生态学报, 2010, 21(11): 2922-2930.
Zhao J F, Guo J P, Ma Y P, et al. Change trends of China agricultural thermal resources under climate change and related adaptation countermeasures[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(11): 2922-2930. (in Chinese)
[4] 杨晓光, 李勇, 代姝玮, 等. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅸ: 中国农业气候资源时空变化特征[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(12): 3177-3188.
Yang X G, Li Y, Dai S W, et al. Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change Ⅸ: spatio-temporal change characteristics of China agricultural climate resources[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011, 22(12): 3177-3188. (in Chinese)
[5] 胡玮, 严昌荣, 李迎春, 等. 冀京津冬小麦灌溉需水量时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2013, 34(6): 648-654.
Hu W, Yan C R, Li Y C, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of irrigation water requirement for winter wheat in Jijingjin region[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(6): 648-654. (in Chinese)
[6] 莫兴国, 薛玲, 林忠辉, 等. 华北平原1981-2001年作物蒸散量的时空分异特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(2): 60-68.
Mo X G, Xue L, Lin Z H, et al. Spatio-temporal distribution of crop evapotranspiration from 1981-2001 over the north China plain[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(2): 60-68. (in Chinese)
[7] Todisco F, Vergni L. Climatic changes in central Italy and their potential effects on corn water consumption[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2008, 148(1): 1-11.
[8] 宋艳玲, 董文杰. 1961-2000年干旱对我国冬小麦产量的影响[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(6): 227-231.
Song Y L, Dong W J. Influence of drought on winter wheat yield in China during 1961-2000[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006, 15(6): 227-231. (in Chinese)
[9] 李元华, 车少静. 河北省温度和降水变化对农业的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(4): 224-228.
Li Y H, Che S J. Impacts of changes of temperature and precipitation on agriculture in Hebei regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2005, 26(4): 224-228. (in Chinese)
[10] 柳芳, 黎贞发. 降水量和积温变化对天津冬小麦产量的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2010, 31(3): 431-435.
Liu F, Li Z F. Impacts of precipitation and accumulated temperature on winter wheat yield in Tianjin[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2010, 31(3): 431-435. (in Chinese)
[11] 代立芹, 李春强, 魏瑞江, 等. 河北省冬小麦气候适宜度及其时空变化特征分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(3): 399-406.
Dai L Q, Li C Q, Wei R J, et al. Climatic suitability of winter wheat and its spatial-temporal changes in Hebei province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(3): 399-406. (in Chinese)
[12] 李秀芬, 马树庆, 宫丽娟, 等. 基于WOFOST的东北地区玉米生育期气象条件适宜度评价[J]. 中国农业气象, 2013, 34(1): 43-49.
Li X F, Ma S Q, Gong L J, et al. Evaluation of meteorological suitability degree during maize growth period based on WOFOST in northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(1): 43-49. (in Chinese)
[13] 李树岩, 彭记永, 刘荣花. 基于气候适宜度的河南夏玉米发育期预报模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 2013, 34(5): 576-581.
Li S Y, Peng J Y, Liu R H. Prediction model of summer maize developmental stages based on climatic suitability in Henan province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(5): 576-581. (in Chinese)
[14] 黄淑娥, 田俊, 吴慧峻. 江西省双季水稻生长季气候适宜度评价分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2012, 33(4): 527-533.
Huang S E, Tian J, Wu H J. Evaluation on climatic suitability during growth season of double rice in Jiangxi province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(5): 576-581. (in Chinese)
[15] 陈群, 于欢, 侯雯嘉, 等. 气候变暖对黄淮海地区冬小麦生育进程与产量的影响[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2014, 34(10): 1363-1372.
Chen Q, Yu H, Hou W J, et al. Impacts of climate warming on growth development process and yield of winter wheat in Huang-huai-hai region of China[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2014, 34(10): 1363-1372. (in Chinese)
[16] 袁彬, 郭建平, 冶明珠, 等. 气候变化下东北春玉米品种熟型分布格局及其气候生产潜力[J]. 科学通报, 2012, 57(14), 1252-1262.
Yuan B, Guo J P, Ye M Z, et al. The distribution pattern type and its climate production potential of spring maize varieties in Northeast under climate change[J]. Science China Press, 2012, 57(14), 1252-1262. (in Chinese)
[17] 孙卫国. 气候资源学[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008: 98-100.
Sun W G. Science of climatic resources[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2008: 98-100. (in Chinese)
[18] 王恩利, 韩湘玲. 黄淮海地区冬小麦、夏玉米生产力评价及其应用[J]. 中国农业气象, 1990, 11(2): 41-46.
Wang E L, Han X L. The productivity evaluation and its application of winter wheat and summer maize in Huang-huai-hai region[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1990, 11(2): 41-46. (in Chinese)
[19] 杜林博斯 S J, 卡萨姆 A H. 粮农组织灌溉及排水丛书: 产量与水的关系[M]. 罗马: 联合国粮食及农业组织, 1979.
Turin Bosch S J, Card A H. The series of FAO irrigation and drainage series: the relationship between yield and water[M]. Rome: FAO, 1979. (in Chinese)
[20] Allen R G, Perreira L S, Raes D. Crop evapotranspiration[R]. Rome: FAO, 1998: 297.
[21] 冶明珠, 郭建平, 袁彬, 等. 气候变化背景下东北地区热量资源及玉米温度适宜度[J]. 应用生态学报, 2012, 23(10): 2786-2794.
Ye M Z, Guo J P, Yuan B, et al. Thermal resources and maize temperature suitability in northeast China under climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 23(10): 2786-2794. (in Chinese)
[22] 胡玮, 严昌荣, 李迎春, 等. 气候变化对华北冬小麦生育期和灌溉需水量的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(9): 2367-2377.
Hu W, Yan C R, Li Y C, et al．Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growing period and irrigation water requirements in the north China plain[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(9): 2367-2377. (in Chinese)
[23] 李国强, 张亚平, 贾海燕, 等. 临汾市冬小麦生育期降水对产量的影响分析[J]. 山西农业科学, 2011, 39(8): 877-879.
Li G Q, Zhang Y P, Jia H Y, et al. Impact of precipitation during the growth period on winter wheat yield in Linfen City[J]. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 39(8): 877-879. (in Chinese)