Grey Correlation Analysis of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Grain Yields in Fujian Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.01.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the statistics of agriculture from 1984 to 2013 in Fujian province, the change features of grain outputs and meteorological disasters were analyzed. Based on dividing the types of meteorological disasters and grains, grey correlation model is aimed to analyze the effects of meteorological disasters on food production from the angles of scope and intensity of meteorological disasters in the years of 1984-1993, 1994-2003 and 2004-2013 respectively. The results showed that: (1)Meteorological disasters had great impacts on grain production in Fujian province. The impact of disaster-affected range was decreasing, while increasing in the intensity of disasters; Grain outputs were more sensitive to the effects of disaster intensity. Thus, the focus of disaster prevention should be shifted from reducing disaster-affected range to decline the losses caused by the disasters of high intensity.(2)The scope of wind-hail had great impacts on food production in Fujian Province, especially for soybean and potato. Recently, typhoon had come to become the key factor endangering the food production. (3)The intensity of flood had great impacts on food production in Fujian Province, especially for wheat and potato.

Key words: Food production, Meteorological disasters, Grain types, Disaster-affected range, Disaster intensity

LIN Zhi-yu, TIAN Gui-liang. Grey Correlation Analysis of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Grain Yields in Fujian Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(01): 77-83.

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