Evaluation of Response of Spring Maize Production to Climate Change in the Eight Provinces of Northern China Based on APSIM Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.02.005

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the spring maize field trial data from agro-meteorological experiment stations in the northern China and daily meteorological data, the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in the maize producing areas of the eight provinces in the northern China was analyzed. The critical meteorological response factors for the development stage and yield of spring maize were determined at the regional scale. The growth and yield formation of spring maize in the past 54 years (1961?2014) were simulated based on APSIM. Response laws of spring maize to climate change were explored. The results showed that, (1) the validated APSIM model had better adaptability in the maize producing areas of the eight provinces in the northern China. (2) Air temperature and soil temperature were the most important meteorological response factors for the development stages of spring maize in the eight provinces of northern China. In the northern spring sowing area, the response of the development stage of spring maize to the maximum temperature was the most obvious. However, in the northwestern inland region, the response of the development stage of spring maize to the minimum temperature was the most obvious. The increase in daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily soil temperature advanced the day of year (DOY) of spring maize growth stage (emergence, flowering and maturation) and decreased the days of development, causing spring maize mature ahead of time. (3) The key meteorological response factors for spring maize yield in the northern spring maize region were temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours. The key meteorological response factors for spring maize yield in the northwestern inland maize region were mainly temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In most areas, the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration significantly decreased in spring maize yield.

Key words: APSIM model, Spring maize in the northern China, Development stage, Key meteorological factors

ZHAO Jun-fang, LI Ning, HOU Ying-yu, ZHANG Yi, XU Jing-wen, PU Fei-yu, PAN Zhi-hua, GUO Jian-ping. Evaluation of Response of Spring Maize Production to Climate Change in the Eight Provinces of Northern China Based on APSIM Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(02): 108-118.

References

[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013. [2]何斌,刘志娟,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征(Ⅱ):西北主要粮食作物干旱[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(1):31-41. He B,Liu Z J,Yang X G,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of agro-meteorological disasters of main crops in china in a changing climate(Ⅱ):drought of cereal crops in northwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(1):31- 41.(in Chinese) [3]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,(1):80-94. Zhou G S.Research prospect on impact of climate change on agricultural production in China[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2015,(1):80-94.(in Chinese) [4]曹士亮,于芳兰,王成波,等.降水量与积温对玉米气象产量影响的综合分析[J].作物杂志,2009,(3):62-65. Cao S L,Yu F L,Wang C B,et al.Comprehensive analysis of the influences of precipitation and accumulated temperature on meteorological yield of maize[J].Crops,2009,(3):62-65.(in Chinese) [5]Zhao J F,Guo J P,Xu Y H,et al.Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment, 2015,202:178-187 [6]赵锦.气候变化背景下我国玉米产量潜力及提升空间研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015. Zhao J.The potential yield and improvement of maize in China under climate change[D].Beijing:Chinese Agriculture University,2015.(in Chinese) [7]李楠.烟草和玉米耐旱HVA1基因的遗传转化[M].北京:首都师范大学,2007. Li N.Genetic transformation of drought tolerant gene HVA1 in tobacco and maize[M].Beijing:Capital Normal University, 2007.(in Chinese) [8]Liu Z,Yang X G,Hubbard K G,et al.Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China[J]. Global Change Biology,2012,18(11):3441-3454. [9]Yang X G,Chen F,Lin X M,et al.Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2015,208:76-84. [10]Xu X P,He P,Zhang J J,et al.Spatial variation of attainable yield and fertilizer requirements for maize at the regional scale in China[J].Field Crops Research,2017,203:8-15. [11]毛留喜,赵俊芳,徐玲玲,等.“镰刀弯”地区春玉米种植的气候适宜性与调整建议[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(12):3935-3943. Mao L X,Zhao J F,Xu L L,et al.Climatic suitability of spring maize planted in the "sickle bend" area of China and regulation suggestion[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016,27(12):3935-3943.(in Chinese) [12]赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):200-205. Zhao J F,Guo J P,Zhang Y H,et al.Advances in research of impacts of climate change on agriculture[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):200-205.(in Chinese) [13]黄焕平.气候变化对中国和欧洲玉米生产的对比研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2013. Huang H P.A comparative study on the impact of climate change on China and European maize production[D].Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2013.(in Chinese) [14]赵秀兰.近50年气候变化对东北农业的影响[J].东北农业大学学报,2010,(9):144-149. Zhao X L.Influence of climate change on agriculture in Northeast China in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2010,(9):144-149.(in Chinese) [15]Wang J,Wang E L,Yin H,et al.Declining yield potential and shrinking yield gaps of maize in the North China Plain[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2014,195-196(2):89-101. [16]龚绍先.作物与气象[M].北京:北京农业大学出版社,1988. Gong S X.Food crops and meteorology[M].Beijing:Beijing Agricultural University Press,1988.(in Chinese) [17]王柳,熊伟,温小乐,等.温度、降水等气象因子对我国玉米生产的影响[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):138-146. Wang L,Xiong W,Wen X L,et al.Effect of climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation on maize production in China[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2014,30(21):138-146.(in Chinese) [18]Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,et al.A novel view of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation[J]. Eur. J. Agron,2013,18(3-4):267-288. [19]李广,李玥,黄高宝,等.基于APSIM模型CO2和温度对旱地小麦产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(8):1088-1095. Li G,Li Y,Huang G B,et al.Response of dry land spring wheat yield to elevated CO2 concentration and temperature by APSIM model[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012, 20(8):1088-1095.(in Chinese) [20]赵俊芳,蒲菲堉,闫伟兄,等.基于APSIM模型识别气象因子对内蒙春小麦潜在产量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(3): 757-765. Zhao J F,Pu F Y,Yan W X,et al.Identifying the effects of meteorological variables on spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia based on APSIM model[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(3):757-765. [21]Zeng W Z,Wu J W,Hoffmann M P,et al.Testing the APSIM sunflower model on saline soils of Inner Mongolia,China [J].Field Crops Research,2016,192:42-54. [22]Holzworth D P,Huth N I,de Voil P G,et al.APSIM–evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2014,62: 327-350. [23]Gauch H G,Hwang J T G,Fick G W.Model evaluation by comparison of model-based predictions and measured values[J].Agronomy Journal,2003,95(6):1442-1446. [24]李克南.华北地区冬小麦-夏玉米作物生产体系产量差特征解析[D].北京:中国农业大学,2014. Li K N.Yield gap analysis focused on winter wheat and summer maize rotation in the North China plain[M].Beijing: Chinese Agriculture University,2014.(in Chinese) [25]穆佳,赵俊芳,郭建平.过去30年东北春玉米发育期对气候变化的响应[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):680-689. Mu J,Zhao J F,Guo J P.Response of spring maize growth stage to climate change in Northeast China over the past 30 years[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2014, 25(6):680-689.(in Chinese) [26]Zhao J F,Guo J P,Mu J.Exploring the relationships between climatic variables and climate-induced yield of spring maize in Northeast China[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment, 2015,207:79-90. [27]Zhao J F,Zhang Y H,Qian Y L,et al.Coincidence of variation in potato yield and climate in Northern China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,573:965-973.