Using Surface Meteorological Data to Establish Daily Total Solar Radiation Calculation Model for Sichuan Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.09.001

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the daily total solar radiation and the surface meteorological data from 2016 to 2018 collected of 6 radiation observation stations in Sichuan Province, the daily total solar radiation calculation model (Model I) of Sichuan Province was established by using “case ranking”, linear regression and stepwise regression method, and another total solar radiation calculation model (Mode II) and a no-sunlight total radiation calculation model (Mode III) were established according to whether the sunshine hours are 0 or not. The results showed that the outcomes of Mode I, Mode II and Mode III achieved significance level of 0.01. The backtest’s MAPE for the model I, model II and Mode III were 12.62%, 10.02% and 16.34%, respectively, and the NRMSE were 16.17% and 12.23%, 28.40%, respectively. The MAPEs of these three models for the 4 typical days are 7.59%, 4.50%, and 36.53%, the NRMSEs were 9.22%, 5.93%, and 40.98%, respectively. As for 4 typical days, if sunshine hours are 0, it’s better to use Mode Ⅰ instead of Mode III, the model II simulation could be used when the sunshine hours are not 0, and then the MAPE was 5.79% and the NRMSE was 7.47%, which were 1.80 and 1.75 percentage points higher than the values calculated by model I simulation. All three established models had application value in calculating daily total radiation; the best simulation method for daily total radiation in Sichuan Province is using Mode I when the sunshine hours are 0, and the model II is used when the sunshine hours are not 0; Altitude, weather conditions and the length of sunshine determine the total amount of daily radiation in all parts of Sichuan. The altitude and weather conditions are the main factors caused the daily total solar radiation differences in Sichuan.

Key words: Sichuan, Daily total solar radiation, Normal score, Meteorological factors, Numerical simulation

Cai Yuan-gang，WANG Ming-tian，CAI Yi-heng，LIU Ya-lin，CHEN Dong-dong. Using Surface Meteorological Data to Establish Daily Total Solar Radiation Calculation Model for Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(09): 543-556.

References

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