Risk Assessment for Meteorological Disasters of Early Rice in the Southern Double- Season Region Based on Information Diffusion Theory

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.11.005

Abstract

Abstract: Grain buds cold and high temperature damage are the most important agro-meteorological disasters affecting growth-development and yield formation of early rice in southern China.In order to improve the forecasting ability of double-season early rice meteorological disasters, in this paper, based on critical meteorological indicators related to grain buds cold and high temperature damage of previous studies, conventional meteorological observation data was used coming from 142 basic stations of double-season rice regions from 1960 to 2012, the occurrence for grain buds cold and high temperature damage was analyzed. Using information diffusion theory, conducted a refined risk assessment for different stations of early rice planting area. The results showed that, (1)annual mean numbers for early rice grain buds cold and high temperature damage distributed significant difference, and annual mean numbers for early rice grain buds cold basically showed progressively increasing from south to north, showing obvious zonal distribution. However, prone areas of high temperature damage mainly located in Hengyang, Shuangfeng, Binzhou areas of Hunan Province, and most parts in Jiangxi of Province areas, and Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui of Zhejiang Province, and Jiayu, Wuhan, Huangshi Hubei Province, and some areas of Anqing in Anhui Province.(2)The spatial distribution characteristics of transcend probability value occurred in least one time and above for grain buds cold and high temperature damage were similar, and most areas showed significant high probability areas, as well as shorter return period and higher reproduction rate. The low probability zone of transcend probability value for grain buds cold and high temperature damage decreased as the number of years of occurrence increases.(3)With the significant increase in the number of occurrences, the station numbers of short return period for grain buds cold and high temperature damage of early rice reduced and station numbers of longer return period corresponding increased.

Key words: Early rice, Grain buds cold, High temperature damage, Risk assessment, Information diffusion theory

WANG Xue-lin, HUANG Qin-qin, LIU Jun. Risk Assessment for Meteorological Disasters of Early Rice in the Southern Double- Season Region Based on Information Diffusion Theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(11): 712-722.

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