Abstract: The main apple-producing areas in northern China are located in the North China plain and the loess Plateau, and the apple blossom frost hazard events have had a severe impact on the income of fruit growers and the economy of the production areas. Future climate change will exacerbate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. In this study, based on the climate model data shared by NEX-GDDP, the seven models with the best fitting ability for the minimum temperature during apple blossom were selected using Taylor diagrams, and the annual encounter values of the minimum temperature during apple blossom were calculated and revised using the transfer function correction method of the extreme value distribution, so as to predict the risk of frost disaster and yield reduction of apples in northern China under climate change. Taking the intensity of the apple blossom frost disaster with a 30-year occurring period event across the study area as an example, in the near and distant future under the RCP4.5 scenario, the regions of Henan, Shanxi, northern Shaanxi and, northern Ningxia were the main affected areas, dominated by the minimum temperature of −3 to −2°C, and the highest yield reduction rates were in the northern regions of Henan, Ningxia, Shanxi, and northern Shaanxi provinces, with the yield reduction rate of apples in northern China ranging from 2.47% to 5.22%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the frost disaster area with a minimum temperature of −3°C or less expands to the whole of Henan, central Shandong and other places, and the yield reduction rate of apples in northern China is 4.57%−12.39%. In the future, apple cultivation in these areas needs to strengthen the prevention of frost disaster risk.

Key words: Frost, Risk assessment, Yield decrease, Climate model, Apple