Abstract: Apple is the pillar industry of agricultural characteristic economy in Shaanxi province, but it is facing severe weather disasters during the production process, and the agricultural insurance has not effectively dispersed and transferred these risk. The data of apple planting area, production and yield per unit area of 30 base counties in Shaanxi province from 1981 to 2019 were collected, and the mathematical statistical analysis, yield loss distribution models and optimal distribution model screening were used to evaluate and determine the apple planting risk and its insurance premium rate. The results showed that the apple planting area, production and yield per unit area were increased from 1981 to 2019 in Shaanxi province. Luochuan, Liquan and Chunhua had the highest planting area and production, and the average planting area were 2.12×10⁴ha, 2.01×10⁴ha, and 1.94×10⁴ha, the average production were 33.19×10⁴t, 51.26×10⁴t and 34.28×10⁴t respectively from 1981 to 2019. Liquan and Fufeng were characterized by the relatively higher average yield per hectare with 19.71t and 16.89t respectively from 1981 to 2019. The probability of disaster risk was 29.72%, and the mild, medium, severe and extreme disasters were 17.41%, 7.21%, 2.99% and 2.11% respectively for apple planting in Shaanxi province. Yanchuan and Qianyang were prone to extreme disasters with probability of 24.18% and 20.79%. The probability of severe and extreme disasters was negatively correlated to the planting area with the correlation coefficients of −0.50. The average premium rate of apple planting was 5.23% in Shaanxi province, Yanchuan had the highest premium rate of 18.37%, followed by Qianyang (16.61%). Liquan, Luochuan, and Chunhua, the bigger apple-planting counties, had relatively low premium rates of 7.12%, 7.35%, and 8.63% respectively. Therefore, the high risk areas such as Yanchuan and Qianyang should be cautious in "northward expansion", Luochuan, Liquan and Chunhua could be maintained the planting advantages, and the low risk areas such as Fengxiang could be considered in planting expansion. Increasing apple planting in area with low natural disaster risk could effectively spread the risk in space. The differentiated premium rate according to local conditions should be implemented to ensure the scientificity of premium rate and improve the efficiency of agricultural insurance.

Key words: Shaanxi apple, Yield loss distribution model, Risk assessment, Agricultural insurance, Premium rate