Abstract: The corn borer is one of main pests in Liaoning Province and its endanger trend tended to be more serious in recent few years.According to the emergence data of the corn borer and the synchronous meteorological data of Liaoning Province in 1991-2004,the effects of main meteorological factors on the emergence grade of the corn borer were analyzed to predict the emergence of corn borer,with correlation analysis,factor analysis,stepwise regression analysis and path analysis.The results indicated that the primary affected factor for the emergence of the corn borer was the precipitation.The precipitation during the pupal stage,eclosion stage and egg incubate stage was the most important factor for the emergence of the corn borer,while the temperature in the egg incubate stage was secondary factor.The precision of forecast was higher when the resuscitation larva of the corn borer was considered.The prediction accurate rate by considering the resuscitation larva of the corn borer was improved by 9% and 26% in 2005 and 2006 respectively.The simulation results were tightly close to the observed emergence data of corn borer.The model could be used to forecast the emergence of corn borer.

Key words: Corn borer, Corn borer, Forecast, Meteorological factor