Abstract: The changes of potato yields were simulated in Ningxia at 25km×25km grid under A2 and B2 emission scenarios by using DSSAT-SUBSTOR associated with the climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies). The main reasons affected the future changes of potato yields were analyzed. The results showed that keeping potato varieties and field managements unchanged and taking account of CO2 fertilization,potato yield would decrease from 8.7% to 41.3% under B2 and A2 scenarios. The yield reduction under A2 scenario would be more than under B2 scenario and the yield reduction in the South Ningxia would be more than that in the Central Ningxia. The major cause would be water scarcity increased and temperature increased in tuber growth.

Key words: Scenarios, Scenarios, Ningxia, Potato, Yield change simulation