Abstract: Through analyzing the wheat stem sawfly emergence booming stage and meteorological data of Huzhu county from 1988 to 2005,it showed that the weather conditions was one of the factor of emergence booming stage delayed and the critical period of emergence booming stage was the last October and January,the main factors were the average January temperature,January precipitation,20cm average soil temperature in January,the average temperature in October last year,and the January average temperature.The soil temperature had significant effect than the January precipitation,average temperature in October last year.With the trend towards global warming,it made the harmful levels of wheat stem sawfly for crops was increasing trends.The difference between predicted and measured values of eclosion pattern was 1-3 days,and the model might be a scientific reference for the local chemical control of wheat stem sawfly.

Key words: Climatic change, Wheat stem sawfly, Emergence booming stage