Impact of Climate Change on Pure Premium Rating of Drought Index Insurance for Maize in Northeast China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.013

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data of 68 stations in Northeast China during 1961-2010， daily reference evapotranspiration during maize growing duration was calculated by using PenmanMonteith formula. Combined with daily precipitation， a indicator crop water deficit （CWD） was designed to indicate drought risk. The whole analysis period was divided into three 30year period （1961-1990，1971-2000 and 1981-2010）. The probability distribution function of CWD was built and critical value of CWD was calculated with cumulative probability ≤5%,≤15% and ≤25%，respectively. These values were set as a division criterion of severe drought，moderate drought and slight drought and used to calculate pure premium rate according to different time scales. CWD was proved to be able to indicate drought risk of maize well in Northeast China. The investigation showed that drought risk of whole region increased from east to west during the period of 1961-2010，and the western region was taking drought risk throughout these years. Most stations showed a drought aggravation and the number of stations was decreasing from severe drought to slight drought. Pure premium rate based on CWD was close to the results based on yield loss （correlation coefficient was 0.893），and it performed a decreasing trend after increasing in time series. Therefore，fair and scientific premium rate should be calculated considering the impact of climate change and appropriate adjustments should be made according to drought risk of each period．

Key words: Crop water deficit, Weather Index Insurance, Climate change, Premium rate

YANG Fan， LIU Bu chun， LIU Yuan， YANG Xiao juan. Impact of Climate Change on Pure Premium Rating of Drought Index Insurance for Maize in Northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(03): 346-355.

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