Abstract:

To objectively evaluate the impact of climate change on the climatic suitability of liquor−making sorghum in northern Guizhou and provide a scientific basis for optimizing planting layouts, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of climate suitability based on daily meteorological data from 14 stations in the main sorghum−producing areas from 1961 to 2024. By combining the sorghum growth indices, suitability models were constructed for temperature, moisture, sunshine and comprehensive climate suitability. The results showed that: (1) the temperature suitability for the growth stage exhibited a significant upward trend, and both the  growth stage and the five individual growth stages were classified as suitable from 1961 to 2024. (2) Moisture suitability during the sowing, seedling and jointing−booting stages exceeded 0.80 with high stability. However, the flowering−grain filling and maturity stages exhibited significant interannual fluctuations, identifying late stage water management as key to stable yields. (3) Sunshine suitability was moderately suitable for the growth stage and early stages, but suitable for the flowering−grain filling and maturity stages. A significant downward trend in sunshine suitability was observed during the jointing−booting stage and throughout the growth stage. (4) The comprehensive climate suitability ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (suitable level) with no significant downward trend. (5) Approximately 93% of the region was suitable for liquor−making sorghum, primarily below 1350m. High−suitability zones (>0.76) were concentrated between 500m and 1250m in the western, central−southern, eastern and some townships of the central−northern Guizhou. In summary, northern Guizhou is generally suitable for liquor−making sorghum, despite the presence of phasic water stress. Optimizing the planting layout and enhangcing water management during the late growth stage are recommended to enhance climate resource utilization and industrial resilience.

Key words: Northern Guizhou, Liquor?making sorghum, Climatic suitability, Spatiotemporal evolution