Simulation Analysis of Winter Agricultural Climatic Resources Over Guangxi Based on PRECIS

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.001

Abstract

Abstract: In this study， the PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impact Study） regional climate modeling system from Hadley Center/UK Met Office was used to generate the winter climate scenario dataset over Guangxi. The simulated temperature， precipitation and radiative flux were corrected with different methods based on the observed data from 92 observatories neighbor with model wind grids over Guangxi. Then the corrected data were used to assess/project the past， present and future status of winter climatic resources over Guangxi. The results showed positive zonal gradient features in the distributions of thermal and radiative resources， and positive meridional gradient features in the precipitation distribution. Under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios， the projection showed increase trends of 0.33℃10y-1and 0.29℃10y-1 respectively in the surface air temperature during 1961-2100. The simulation showed slight changes in precipitation with trends of-0.2mm10y-1 under A2 scenario， while the significant decrease trend of-4.1mm10y-1 was showed under B2 scenario. The simulated radiative flux showed general increases under both scenarios. In general， the projection of future surface air temperature and radiative flux would provide better thermal/radiative conditions for developing winter crop planting in Guangxi， while the projected water conditions would bring increased disadvantages．

Key words: PRECIS, Scenario projection, Agricultural climatic resources

LIANG Jun，LIU Yi jiang，LIANG Ju，XU Yinlong. Simulation Analysis of Winter Agricultural Climatic Resources Over Guangxi Based on PRECIS[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(02): 119-128.

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