Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.003

Abstract

Abstract: Based on yield data of single-season rice in 50 city-county from 1981 to 2014 in Anhui province, the relative meteorological yield was calculated by using the methods of linear sliding average in statistical analysis. The temporal and spatial distribution of relative meteorological yield was analyzed by the method of EOF, and by using synthetic risk index of single-season rice yield loss, which was established and consisted of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient, risk index of yield reduction rate and index of regional agricultural levels, the risk regionalization of single-season rice yield loss in Anhui province was completed. The results showed that the change trend of single-season rice yield was consistent and the increase or decrease of yield in the north of Anhui was more obvious than the south. Besides, the relative meteorological yield of Anhui fluctuated violently before 2005. The different assessment indices of yield loss showed that the values of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient and risk index of yield reduction rate in the north part of study areas was higher than the south, and the index of regional agricultural levels for single-season rice was reduced from northeast to southwest. In the study area, the north had the higher risk. The high risk and middle risk regions were mainly distributed in Yanhuai areas and the north of Jianghuai areas. The low risk areas had the widest distribution and were located in southern mountainous area, Yangtze river region and the south of Jianghuai region.

Key words: Single-season rice, Relative meteorological yield, Yield loss, Index of regional agricultural levels

GUO Jian-mao, XIE Xiao-yan, WU Yue, WANG Jin-jie, SHEN Shuang-he. Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(08): 488-495.

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