Table of Content

20 February 2012, Volume 33 Issue 01

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Response of Desert Climate in Minqin to Global Warming.

CHANG Zhao-Feng, ZHU Guo-Qing, HAN Fu-Gui, ZHONG Sheng-Nian.

2012, 33(01):  1-7.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.001

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 Global warming has become a widespread concern society as a whole in recent years, and desert climate was worth to pay more attention under global warming. Climate change, including the temperature, precipitation, air humidity, wind speed and sunshine in Minqin during 1961-2009, was analyzed in the paper. The results showed that the increasing rate of annual average temperature in Minqin desert area was higher than the national average, especially in spring and winter, but lower than northeast and northwest of China. The variation of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, annual average air relative humidity, average wind speed and sunshine hours changed in different stages. The highest temperature fluctuation increased significantly, instability of desert climate was stronger. The annual average wind speed and air humidity decreased. There was positive correlation between air humidity and precipitation (P<0.05), and negative correlation between annual average wind speed and air relative humidity (P<0.01).

Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change in the Huaihe River Basin

GAO Chao, JIANG Tong, DI Jian-Qing

2012, 33(01):  8-17.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.002

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Based on observed data from 1958 to 2007 and climate projection data from 2011 to 2060 by ECHAM5/MPI-OM,annual temperature change,the maximum and minimum extreme temperature,agricultural threshold temperature and annual precipitation in Huaihe river basin were analyzed.The results showed that annual temperature decreased before 1990s and then increased.Winter temperature increased and summer temperature decreased.The occurrence of both extreme temperature events and variation of temperature decreased in 1958-2007,but the first day of all agricultural threshold temperatures advanced and the last day delayed.The cumulative number of days and temperature increased continuity.For spatial distribution,the increase trend of temperature in east of the Huaihe river basin was stronger than western.Annual precipitation and extreme precipitation showed no significant change trend from 1958 to 2007 and had a relatively significant change in summer.Comparing with climate from 1961 to 1990,annual temperature would increase significantly during 2011-2060 under three scenarios,SRES-A1B scenarios increasing would higher than other two scenarios and significant since 2040.There would be maximum increasing rates in winter under three scenarios.Annual precipitation would have no significant change under three scenarios,the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously.Spring and summer precipitation accounted for 70% of annual precipitation.

Temporal and Spatial Changes Characteristics of the Agricultural Meteorological  Factors and Crops Growth Stages in Songnen Plain.

YANG Fei, YAO Zuo-Fang, SONG Jia, LIU Xing-Tu, DU Jia

2012, 33(01):  18-26.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.003

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Based on the climatic data from 1951 to 2008 and the crops growth stages record data from 1992 to 2010 in Songnen plain and its surrounding areas,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the key climatic factors and main crops growth stages were studiedThe results showed that the climate changes in Songnen plain for nearly 60 years was very obvious,the temperature increased on average about 1.79 ℃,the accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ increased on average about 228 ℃〖DK〗·d and the lines of 2700,2800 and 2900 ℃〖DK〗·d moved to north about 100～240 km,the precipitation and relative humidity both decreased and these two factors in western Songnen plain varied significantly than that in the eastern area,the sunshine hours increased in the north area and decreased in the south〖JP+1〗Overall,the climate changes made different influences on these major dryland crops,then the soybeans growth stages delayed obviously，and the second was spring corn，the spring wheats growth stages delayed the least in the southern and western Songnen plain.

Analysis of Spatial temporal Precipitation Variation in Anhui Province during 1959-2007

JIANG Jun-Jie, SUN Wei-Guo

2012, 33(01):  27-33.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.004

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Based on daily precipitation data of sixteen meteorological stations in Anhui province during 1959 to 2007,using linear regression method，MannKendall method，accumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual precipitation variation were analyzed.The results showed that the trend of annual precipitation increased unsignificantly.The linear increase trend was significant in summer and winter,but decrease trend in spring and autumn were not obvious.There was a significant decrease trend for annual total rain days in all areas,but the heavy and rainstorm days was increased.The total rain day was reduced from south to north,but the change rates of ≥25mm rain day is increased from the same direction.Both annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation presented two kinds of period,and 2～4 years cycle concussion was obvious.In Anhui province,the precipitation was more centralized because of less rain days and more rainfalls.Since the mid 1990s,the annual precipitation presented more prominent wide range shock and uncertainly,resulted in more drought and flood disasters and bringing bad effect of the local agricultural production.

Phenology Change of Woody Plants during 1998-2008 in Heilongjiang Province

LIU He-Nan, LIU Yu-Lian, ZHU Hong-Rui, YU Hong-Min

2012, 33(01):  34-40.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.005

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Based on phenology data of 26 agro meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province during 1998-2008,the woody plant evolution of Syringa oblata,Salix matsudana,Ulmus pumila and Populus simonii was analyzed.The results showed that Salix.matsudana got into the bud opening from late March to late April,which was earlier than the other three species.The beginning of leaf expansion of the four plants was concentrated in late April to mid May.They all got into first flowering from late April to late May.The fruit ripening period of Salix matsudana and Ulmus pumila were in late May to June,but Populus simonii were in late May to late June.The primary leaf color changing of the four species were concentrated in mid September to mid October,the leaf falling were concentrated in late September to late October.The four species showed a delaying trend in both spring phenology and autumn phenology.The date of exuberance,flower flourishing and leaf color changing of Syringa oblate delayed obviously.The same as the date of flowering,leaf color changing and leaf falling of Ulmus pumila,and also for the autumn phenology of Populus simonii.There was no obvious change for growth season of four species,but part of region changed significantly.

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Qinghai Province during 1960-2009

WANG Bao-Long, ZHANG Ming-Jun, WEI Jun-Lin, WANG Sheng-Jie, MA Qian, LI Xiao-Fei

2012, 33(01):  41-47.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.006

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Based on the data of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature of 26 stations in Qinghai province from 1960 to 2009,the spatial and temporal variability of extreme temperature events was analyzed by using of regression analysis,inverse distance weighted,Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis methods.The results showed that the occurrence of cold days and nights decreased significantly with -0.80 and -0.32d〖DK〗·y-1(P<0.01) respectively,and the occurrence of warm days and nights increased significantly with 0.66 and 0.47d〖DK〗·y-1(P<0.01) respectively.Both cold days (nights) and warm days (nights) existed abrupt change (P<0.01).There was displayed very clearly in cold days (nights) and warm days (nights) in different periodsWith climate warming in future,winter could become warmer and growth season could extend.It was necessary to take measures in agricultural production

Spatial Evolution of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Arid Area of Northwest China

LIU Qin, YAN Chang-Rong, MEI Xu-Rong, ZHANG Yan-Qing, YANG Jian-Ying, LIANG Yu-Shan

2012, 33(01):  48-53.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.007

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Based on meteorological data from 2000 to 2009，including daily temperature，relative humidity，sunshine hours and wind speed of 124 meteorological stations in arid region of northwest China，crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0) were calculated by using of the Penman Monteith formula，which was nominated by FAO in 1998 and Kriging method Furthermore，spatial transfer of the centroids of daily mean evapotranspiration zone (≥0.4mm) in crop growing season，from April to September，was analyzed by function of spatial analysis of GIS.The results showed that the centroids of daily mean evapotranspiration zone (≥0.4mm) described fluctuating two times from east to west and located in the middle region finally.The migration paths of centroids showed from dispersed to concentrated，and then dispersed.The plane distance between starting and end centroid was longest in April，followed by July，September，June and August，and shortest in May.The destination for centroid of every month during crop growing season was different，but most located in Inner Mongolia .Furthermore，the sunshine duration was followed，and the stations where an evapotranspiration change was sensitive to relative humidity account for the minority.The results could provide important information for the research on developing active adaptation measures to ensure food security under climate change.The results were widely acknowledged in agricultural drought monitoring，water resources management and assessment.

alibration of EC-5 Soil Moisture Sensors and Its Application in Arid Desertificated Area

LI Qing-He, XU Jun, GAO Ting-Ting, WANG Sai-Xiao, REN Wen-Jiao

2012, 33(01):  54-58.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.008

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〖WT5HZ〗Abstract：〖WT5BZ〗The soil water content in different soil depth of the sandy soil and clay soil respectively in Ulan Buh desert were measured with the EC-5 sensors,simultaneously the soil moisture content were also measured with the weighting method after dried which were taken as the standard value of soil water contentThen many linear or curves regression process were conducted to 〖JP2〗establish the calibration function models.The results showed that the calibration function for the sandy soil was the linear model,which was also relative to the soil depth.The calibration model for the sandy soil was QS=0.71393S+0.01543D+1.71354,in where D is soil depth(cm),S is the sensor output value (%),〖JP〗Adjusted R2 equal to 0920,P<0.05.The calibration function for clay soil was the nonlinear model.The calibration model for the clay soil was lnQN=1.112S0.316,in where Adjusted R2 equal to 0.949,P<0.05.After the simulation of back substitution,the high correlation between the simulated value and the standard value were revealedIn the period of the application and verification of the calibration function models,the annual change characteristics of the soil water content in sandy soil and clay soil were presented,and the very significant correlation between the calibrated value and the sensor output value exists（P<0.01）,which indicated that the calibration function models of EC-5 sensor are stable and reliable,and good application effects are presented.

Changes of Soil Moisture and Its Impact on Desert Shrubs in Alashan Desert

HAO Lu, HUANG Ling-Ling, ZHANG Hui-Yuan

2012, 33(01):  59-65.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.009

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Based on 25 years (1981-2005) of continuous positioning observation data on desert shrub in Xilingaole area of Alashan league in Inner Mongolia, by M-K trend method and correlation method, the growing periods and yield trends of the 5 main species of desert shrubs, soil moisture trends, and the relationship between them were analyzed. The results showed that the soil moisture, especially that of 10-20cm soil layer decreased obviously（P＜0.05）. Compared with 10-30cm, the soil moisture of 30-50cm soil layer was relatively stable. During 1981-2005, the reviving date, flowering and withering date of the 5 species of desert shrubs all had a ahead trend, especially for withering, reviving on the second, which made the growing length of〖JP〗 the 5 desert shrubs reduced. The fresh weight of the 5 species of desert shrubs was significantly decreased. Compared with dry weight, fresh weight decreased more obvious. Soil water content mainly affected the reviving date of the 5 desert shrubs. The higher soil water content was, the earlier reviving date. The 30-50cm soil layer was the main layer affecting shrubs reviving due to its relatively stable. The 10-20cm soil layer had a significant impact on dry weight and fresh weight of desert shrubs. The correlation of dry weight, fresh weight and average soil moisture of last year was significant than that of the current year, indicating that dry weight and fresh weight of desert shrubs more closely related to pre soil moisture.

Soil Shallow Layer Temperature and Thermal Diffusivity of  Achnatherum splendens Arid Grassland around Qinghai Lake Area

ZHANG Fa-Wei, GUO Zhu-Jun, LIN Li, LI Yi-Kang, CAO Guang-Min, CHEN Gui-Chen

2012, 33(01):  66-70.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.010

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Based on soil surface temperature of six soil layers at depth of 5cm, 10cm, 20cm, 40cm, 60cm and 80cm from June 15 to July 14 in 2010, the variation of soil shallow layer temperature and soil thermal diffusivity was studied. The results showed that there were an 〖JP2〗obvious sinusoidal diurnal variations of soil temperature from top layers(<20cm),〖JP〗 buffer layer (20-40cm) for sinusoidal fluctuation and linear oscillation while undetectable diurnal changes below 40cm soil layers. The amplitude (A) and phase (φ) of diurnal soil temperature variations declined exponentially (A=4.60e-6.74z，R2〖KG-1mm〗=0.93) and linearly (φ=6.14z+7.67，R2〖KG-1mm〗=0.95) with the soil depth (z) increased, respectively. The response to pulse precipitation of soil temperature at top layers changed gradually, and resulted in the same thermal soil layers. Soil thermal diffusivity (κ) was enhanced exponentially (κ=2×10-7e4.21z，R2〖KG-1mm〗=0.92) with soil depth enhancement. There were totally opposite diurnal fluctuations between 34.7cm and 5.0cm. The depth of diurnal constant temperature strata was about 86.0-102.0cm.

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Soil-Air Temperature Difference (TsTa) in Southeast Guizhou Last 50 Years

GU Xin, ZHANG Yan-Mei, HUANG Da-Wei

2012, 33(01):  71-77.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.011

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Based on the monthly temperature of 0-20cm soil and air temperature of 16 stations in southeast Guizhou province from 1961 to 2010, the series of temperature difference from soil to air (referred to as Ts Ta) in four seasons were calculated respectively. The spatial distribution and changing tendency was analyzed by using of orthogonal function decomposition (EOF), empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Mann-Kendall methods. The results showed that the value of Ts Ta was positive in every season, but there was big difference in spatial and temporal distributions among seasons, in which highest value occurred in winter and lowest value in spring. The distribution of the highest value center was different each quarter as affected by large scale climate anomalies. The first component (IMF1) was important component in oscillation mode of Ts Ta in each season. Ts Ta in spring and autumn showed obvious increase (P＜0.05) in last 50 years in southeast Guizhou, but not obviously in winter and summer. The mutation point of Ts Ta in spring and autumn occurred in 1970s, and that in winter and summer occurred in 1990s, which indicated that the change of Ts Ta had obvious stage and regional differences in every season.

Spatial Analysis of Optimum Seeding Time of Spring Maize in Hunan

ZHONG Xin-Ke, LIU Luo, SONG Chun-Qiao, YOU Song-Cai

2012, 33(01):  78-85.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.012

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Based on established climatic suitability assessment model and the 1981-2010 daily climatic data, and under the support of geographic information system, a simulation of optimum seeding date of spring maize was carried out in 1km grid mapping unit. The experimental results showed that optimum seeding time is at the third ten days of February in the south of and at the first ten days of Match in most part of middle and north of Hunan province. The optimum seeding time of mountain area gets later along with the height increase. According to the difference between the optimum seeding time and the earliest seeding time, research area can be classified into three subregions: (1) the basin in the south where the optimum seeding time is 2 weeks later than the earliest seeding time. (2) High mountain subregion where the optimum seeding time comes 2~3 weeks later. (3) The other part where the optimum seeding time is identical with the earliest seeding time. The determination of optimum seeding time needs to take into consideration of damages from high temperature damage in maturing stage and the deficit of water in the later growth period, as they varies spatially, the optimum seeding time determination need to be analyzed for different site specifically.

Analyzing and Zoning of the Ecoclimate Suitability on Winter WheatVarieties in Anhui Province

MA Xiao-Qun, ZHANG Hong-Qun, WU Wen-Yu, QI Shang-恩, CHEN Xiao-Yi

2012, 33(01):  86-92.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.013

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Based on the meteorological data during the growing season of winter wheat in 78 weather stations in 1971-2000 and geographical information of Anhui province, the different eco climate suitable planting area of winter wheat varieties were analyzed and divided. The zoning index system was constructed by selecting main meteorological factors affecting the distribution and growth of winter wheat varieties. The digital maps of the zoning factors were formed by applying regression analysis combined with spatial grid interpolation. By two levels indices of the temperature factor and precipitation ones, the distribution maps of the ecoclimate suitable planting areas of winter wheat with the scale of kilometer per grid were formed, and then covered with farmland digital mask, the zoning map of winter wheat with farmland meaning in Anhui province was finally established. The results showed that the ecoclimate suitability of winter wheat could divide into five regions and 11 subregions, which well reflects the distribution characteristics of the ecoclimate suitability on winter wheat varieties and difference in temperature suitability and precipitation ones for each region. The winter hardiness degree of the winter wheat varieties weakened from the northern area to the southern area because the difference of winter temperature among northern and southern areas. The main problem of winter wheat production in Anhui province is water imbalances. Water is deficient in the northern area, while too much in the southern area, so the stable and high crop yield were restricted. According to the zoning result the measures should be taken to increase the ability of drought resistance in the northern areas of winter wheat production area, the planting area of winter wheat with semi winter varieties in the area along the Huaihe river and northern of the Jianghuai hill should be extended, and planting area of winter wheat in the southern area of Anhui province was suggested to reduced so as to improve the winter wheat planting level.

Regionalization of the Climate Suitability on Spring Potato Planting in Western Guizhou Based on GIS

CHI Zai-Xiang, MO Jian-Guo, KANG Xue-Liang, GU Xiao-Ping, XIAO Jun

2012, 33(01):  93-97.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.014

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Based on observed meteorological data of 15 stations in west of Guizhou province from 1978 to 2010, by using of GIS technology, the climatic division for spring potato was developed. The results showed that 8 indices to climatic division for spring potato existed. They were altitude, average temperature and  active accumulated temperature above 10℃and precipitation and sunshine hours in growth stage, average temperature in July, the average temperature difference between day and night from July to August and precipitation from May to July. Division was under grid interval of 100m×100m, and got 52% most suitable area, 45% suitable area and 3% subsuitable area in west Guizhou province.

Evaluation of Ecological Environment and Flue-cured Tobacco Quality in Tobacco-growing Areas of Lufeng Base

ZHAO Qi-Bai, FENG Zhu-An, ZHOU Xing-Hua, HU Zhong-Sheng, YANG Jia-Xiong

2012, 33(01):  98-103.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.015

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Based on the meteorological data and physicochemical properties of soil in Lufeng base of China tobacco Jiangsu industrial Co, Ltd , climate feasibility, climate similarity and soil feasibility were analyzed. By analyzing tobacco appearance, chemical components and sensory, comprehensive quality of tobacco leaves were evaluated. The results were as follows:(1) climate feasibility index(CFI) of Lufeng base was 100%. Lufeng base was the most suitable planting area of tobacco. The similarity of the climatic conditions of fluetobacco for other tobaccogrowing areas reached the higher degree. The value of similarity ranged from 0.50 to 0.99. (2) Soil feasibility index of Lufeng base was 0.73. SFI reached 2 class levels, close to 1 class levels, which suggested soil of the region was suitable for planting flue cured tobacco. (3) By analyzing meteorological data of Lufeng base, tobacco flavor index（K value） was 0.26. Tobacco leaves were typical of clear scent. Tobacco leaf structure osteoporosis maturity were better. Quality of aroma was high，undesirable taste and biting taste were small.

Prediction of Wheat Mature Time Based on Temperature Index during Specific Growth Stage

LI You-Yong, DU Li-Jun, YANG Jing, SUN Hai-Yan

2012, 33(01):  104-108.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.016

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 The correlation relationship between accumulated temperature during whole growth period and in different growth stages, the temperature factors that included accumulated days of specific temperature index and maturing time in north of Henan province last 10 years (2000-2009) was analyzed, the results showed that accumulated days(AD15) of the maximum daily temperature≥15℃ and accumulated days(HD20) of the maximum daily temperature〖JP3〗≥20℃ during November to April(next year)were significantly correlated with the days of whole growth period(P<0.01). 〖JP〗Each maturing time was simulated by using the equation of accumulated days of average temperature≥15℃,the results were highly consistent with the actual maturity, which indicated that the  AD15 and  HD20 during November the year to April next year were the key meteorological factors that influence wheat growth and development.  AD15 of average temperature≥15℃ could be used to predict wheat mature time and harvest time effectively.

Impact of Meteorological Factors on Winter Wheat Yield in Middle and East Henan Province Based on Household Data

FAN Lei, HU Hai-Yan, WANG Lai-Gang, MENG Jun-Jie, ZHUO Wen-Fei

2012, 33(01):  109-113.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.017

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The actual winter wheat yield data during 2003-2009 were investigated inhome based on household in three villages, and the method of linear sliding average was used to remove trend yield of winter wheat, then the climatic yield was calculated. The correlation between climatic yield and meteorological data adjacent to three villages was analyzed. The results showed that precipitation of seedingbefore winter, sunshine hours of fillingmilk stage, and average temperature of filling stage were key meteorological factors to influence winter wheat yield, which appeared as drought disaster during seedling stage, cloudy drizzly conditions during fillingmilk stage and high temperature during filling stage. The results could provide technical support for winter wheat production. 

Characteristics of Reflection Spectrum of Cotton Canopy in North Xinjiang

WANG Jin, LI Xin-Jian, BAI Li, DU Hong, XIANG Dao, BAI Shu-Jun

2012, 33(01):  114-118.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.018

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Based on investigating the characteristics of reflection spectrum of cotton canopy in different cotton varieties, irrigation and nitrogen levels，the results showed that there was a marked difference in the reflection spectrum of the canopy at different growth stages of cotton. The reflection spectrum of the canopy increased before flower and boll stage, decreased after flower and boll stage with the growth of cotton. The reflection spectrum of the canopy decreased in the near infrared region（700-800nm） and increased in the visible region（400-700nm） with increasing the irrigation level. There were some differences in the reflection spectrum of the canopy for different cotton varieties. The reflection spectrum of the canopy for the treatments of N1（135kg·ha-1nitrogen）and N3（540kg·ha-1 nitrogen） had a marked difference in the near infrared wave bands.

10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.019

LI Xiao-Chuan, TAO Hui, ZHANG Shi-Ming, LIU Hou-Yong

2012, 33(01):  119-123.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.019

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Based on observed phenophase data and ground meteorological data of Korla meteorology station from 1980 to 2010, the meteorological factors of affecting the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering were analyzed. 〖JP2〗The results showed that beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering advanced earlier in last 31 years(P＜0.01).〖JP〗 There was significant negative relationship between the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering and average temperature of spring and winter, as well as ground temperature with different depth in spring. There was significant positive relationship between the beginning date and daily mean temperature above 5°C and 10°C for five consecutive days. Prediction model for the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering was established by using of Partial Least Squares Regression method.

Spectroscopy Diagnostics of Water Content and Greenness Features in Wheat Leaf

JIN Lin-Xue, LI Ying-Xue, XU De-Fu, GUO Jian-Mao, ZHANG Bi-Hui

2012, 33(01):  124-128.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.020

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The leaf spectral reflectance of three nitrogen levels of the two wheat varieties, and three water content treatments was investigated by using of ASD FieldSpec 3 spectra, the SPAD value was determined then to weight the different leaves by using of SPAD-502, the correlation relationship among the spectrum parameters, water content and SPAD value was analyzed by using of ViewSpec Pro and Matlab softwares, in order to define the sensitive bands or spectral index for water content and greenness features of wheat leaves. The results showed that there was close and stable relationship among water index (WI)，water stress index (MSI) and midinfrared simple vegetation index one (MSVI1)（P<0.05）.There was significant relationship between Fd664, SDr/SDb and SPAD value, which indicated that spectral parameters could be used to monitor wheat leaf water content and greenness features.

Risk Evaluation of Hail Disaster in Yunnan Tobacco Planting Areas Based on GIS

LI Meng, ZHU Yong, JI Wen-Juan

2012, 33(01):  129-133.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.021

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 The mathematical model of the hail disaster risk assessment was established, by using of GIS, to evaluate the hail disaster risk in Yunnan tobacco planting areas from three aspects such as sensitivity, risk and vulnerability, based on the relief degree of land surface, average hail days from May to September, the average GDP, the percentage of cropland, and the average production value of cropland. The results showed that the gradation of hazard evaluation for hail disaster was high in Qujing, Yuxi and Chuxiong, which should be pay more attention to defense hail disaster. The gradation was low in the southwest of Yunnan, including Simao, Lincang and Dehong, where the planting areas of tobacco could be increased. 

Occurrence Pattern on Spring Frost Injury of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu
Province and Its Climatic Risk Division

BAO Yun-Xuan, WANG Ying, GAO 苹, SHEN Shuang-He

2012, 33(01):  134-141.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.022

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Based on the observed data of conventional meteorological stations and the investigated data of the winter wheat during the different growth periods in Jiangsu province from 1980 to 2009, in this paper, some plaguing indices for the spring frost injury were designed，an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and a method of wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatialtemporal distribution of the spring frost injuries in the province and an risk index was suggested to evaluate the climatic risks of the injuries and decide their divisions in the province. The results showed: (1) the annual occurrence frequency of the spring frost injuries of winter wheat in Jiangsu province had been increasing from 1980 to 1987 and it had been decreasing since 1987. In this 30 years, the temporal evolving tendencies of the spring frost injuries in different grades were consistent with the change of the annual occurrence frequency. (2)There were different occurrence cycles of the spring frost injuries such as a obvious cycle of 22 years, 11 years definitely, 4 years and 2 years.(3) The maximum occurrence frequency area of the heavy spring frost injuries was Shuyang county where situated in the north 〖JP2〗side of Huaihe river valley, but the largest occurrence frequency area of the middle and light injuries appeared in Dafeng city along the Yellow Sea coast of Jiangsu province. (4) The high risk areas distributed in Xinyi city, Shuyang county, Dafeng city, Rugao city and Rudong county in the northern part of Jiangsu province. The moderate risk regions were Xuzhou region (Xinyi city was excluded), Lianyungang region, Shuqian region (Shuyang county was excluded), Huaian region, Yancheng region (Dafeng city was excluded),Yangzhou region (Gaoyou city was excluded), Taizhou region (Xinhua city was excluded) and Nantong (Rugao city and Rudong county were excluded). The low risk areas were the south part of the province and Xinhua city, Gaoyou city of the Lixiahe river region.

Forecast for the Occurrence of Sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in Hetao
Irrigation District

DAN Jian-Bing, KONG De-Yin, LIU Shuang-Ping, GAO Fei-Xiang, YANG Song, ZHANG Jing

2012, 33(01):  142-147.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.023

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Correlation analysis was performed between data about appearance of central infected plants, prosperous beginning stage, occurrence degree for sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in hetao irrigation district from 2000 to 2009 and meteorological data in corresponding period. And corresponding predictive equations were established. The results showed that, precipitation was the key factor for the occurrence of sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. And temperature, humidity, evaporation, gale days, sunshine duration also had significant impacts on the occurrence time and degree of the disease. Six forecast models for November and May of next year were established through the 0.05 level of significance test in use of stepwise regression, and historical materials fit better. There were small difference between the predicted value and the actual value by forecasting for 2010 and 2011, as a result, the forecast models could be put into operation.

Determination of Frozen (Cold) Injury Indicators of Main Fruit Trees in South Subtropical Area

CHEN Hui, WANG Jia-Yi, PAN Wei-Hua, LIN Jing, XU Zong-Huan, YANG Kai, LI Li-Chun

2012, 33(01):  148-155.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.01.024

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 Based on historical climate data and frozen (cold) injury data, two years field experiments data (2007/2008, 2008/2009), and typical year data of fruit trees, the low temperature indictors of main fruit trees in south subtropical area were analyzed by using of mathematic statistics and comparative confirmation considering the morphological standard. The light, moderate, severe, most severe frozen 〖JP2〗(cold) injury grades of fruit trees in south subtropical region were determined, in which of longan trees were -1.5～0℃, -2.5～-1.5℃, -3.5～-2.5℃ and <-3.5℃, litchi trees were -2.0～0℃, -3.0～-2.0℃, -4.0～-3.0℃ 〖JP〗and <-4.0℃, and banana trees were 3.0～5.0℃, 1.0～3.0℃, -1.0～1℃ and <-1.0℃ respectively.