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20 May 2012, Volume 33 Issue 02

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Inter comparison of Long term Simulations of Climate over China by PRECIS and RegCM3

WANG Fang-Dong, LI Tao, XU Yin-Long, CHEN Shu-Chi

2012, 33(02):  159-165.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.001

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Long term（1958-12—2001-11）climate simulations over China by both PRECIS and RegCM3, with the same configuration of boundary and initial conditions, domain and horizontal resolution, were carried out, so as to analyze and compare the two models simulation capacity for climatology and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation over China. The principal conclusions were given as follows. Both models performed well in simulating the spatial distribution features of annual mean temperature. However, there was about 1.5℃ of warm bias for PRECIS while 0.8℃ of cold bias for RegCM3, a mean 2～3℃ difference could be found between the two models. The models could also well reproduce the inter annual variability of temperature, but compared with observation, there were still some differences about the location and intensity of variability centre in the simulated results of the two models. As for the annual precipitation and the corresponding interannual variability, both PRECIS and RegCM3 had certain simulation capacity.Compared with RegCM3, PRECIS was more consistent with observations in terms of the simulated location and intensity of heavy precipitation centre and areas with larger variability.

Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Extreme Climate Events in North China

WANG Ji, JIANG Da-Kai, ZHANG Ying-Juan

2012, 33(02):  166-173.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.002

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Using 50-year data from 80 stations in the northern area of China, the extreme temperatures and precipitation indexes were calculated, and the long term trend was also analyzed. The results showed that both maximum and minimum temperatures in North China exhibited a significantly rising trend, with the former being less than the latter in amplitude. After climate abrupt, maximum temperature trend in North China rose significantly with cold night index (TN10) declining obviously, but warm night index（TN90）showing an ascendant trend. After climate mutations, TN10 also showed an obvious decreasing trend. That is, cold day index (TX10) declined, and warm day index (TX90) showed an ascendant trend. In terms of space distribution, maximum temperature large value was located in the west Inner Mogolia and the most areas of Shanxi province, whereas minimum temperature large value was in BeijingTianjinHebei and northeast Shanxi province. The extreme precipitation, rainfall frequency and precipitation intensity in North China tended to decline. Extreme rainfall, extreme precipitation mutation and extreme precipitation intensity showed a striking decreasing trend. Rainfall and rainfall intensity had the same return year of 16 years and 8 years. Strong snow quantity, frequency and intensity showed a clear rising trend. In North China, 〖JP2〗extreme precipitation was roughly distributed from the northwestsoutheast to the north, while in southern North China (e.g. in Hebei province and Shanxi province) extreme precipitation reduced in BeijingTianjin region. Extreme precipitation frequency distribution increased from the east to the west, with a most significant rising trend in the middle area of Shanxi province.

Study on the Dynamics of Soil Respiration in the Croplands of Mung Bean and Maize in Hilly Area of North China

LU Sen, MENG Ping, ZHANG Jin-Song, GAO Jun, HUANG Hui, SUN Shou-Jia

2012, 33(02):  174-177.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.003

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The study of soil respiration under different crops is important to the carbon cycle research in the agro ecosystem. In this study, soil respiration of mung bean (Vigna radiate L.) field and maize (Zea mays L.) field in hilly area of North China were measured during the growing period of July-October 2006 based on the IRGA technique. The diurnal and seasonal variations of soil respiration at two agro ecosystems were analyzed. The results showed that the overall soil respiration rate of mung bean field was 2.11μmol·m-2·s-1, larger than 1.90μmol·m-2·s-1 at maize field significantly.There were significant seasonal variations of soil respiration at two agro ecosystems, and the amplitude changes in maize field was larger than in the mung bean field. The maximum respiration rates of maize and mung bean cropland both occurred at August 9. Statistic analysis showed soil temperature was the dominant environmental factor affecting the seasonal variation of soil respiration. Moreover, both the vant Hoff model and Arrhenius model satisfactorily described the soil respiration as a function of soil temperature at the two systems with R2 more than 0.73. No significant correlation between soil respiration and soil water content was found. The temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q10) was 3.31 and 2.16 for the maize and mung bean field, respectively. The Arrhenius model present a better performance than the vant Hoff model, and the soil activation energy in the maize field (79.41kJ·mol-1) was larger than in the mung bean field (55.72kJ·mol-1).

Effect of Climate Warming on Phenophase of Representative Plants in Southern Shanxi Province

LI Yan, WANG Zhi-Wei, ZHANG Jian-Ling

2012, 33(02):  178-184.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.004

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Based on phenological data of the woody, herbaceous plants and observed temperature data in agricultural experiment station of Yuncheng, Linfen, Jincheng and Changzhi, Shanxi province, the variation of temperature and phenology was analyzed by using the methods of anomaly analyzing and linear tendency, and the effect of the climate warming on phenological plants was discussed. The results showed that all of the phenology in spring advanced, and plant growing season prolonged. Phenophase in autumn delayed, but the beginning of leaves falling for most herbaceous plants advanced a little, and the end of leaves falling for most the herbaceous plants advanced. The leaf expansion date advanced 1-18 days with l℃ increasing.

Study on Optimal Subdivision Scheme of Watershed Using SWAT Model
—A Case Study in Erhai Basin, Yunnan Province

LI Man-Man, HAN Hui-Ling, LIU Xiao-Ying, HAO Wei-Ping

2012, 33(02):  185-189.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.005

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Taking Erhai basin, Yunnan province as an example, this paper investigated the effect of sub division level on simulations of runoff and sediment load under SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) framework, and determined the optimal sub division scheme.Results showed that the annual average runoff depth increased with the number of the sub watershed，but the sensitivity was relatively small，and the relative deviation was only 0.89%.In contrast，the annual average sediment load decreased with the number of the sub watershed，and the sensitivity was relatively large，the relative deviation being 21.21%.Considering the response of both the annual average runoff depth and sediment load to the sub division scheme, a threshold value of 137 was proposed as the optimal sub division level in Erhai basin, and the average area of the sub watershed accounts for 0.73% of the total basin area.Above this critical value, the simulated runoff depth and sediment load were stabilized, and their accuracy could not be improved further.According to our results, the method, using ratio of a subwatershed to total basin area to determine the optimal number of sub watershed in previous studies, cannot describe the real condition in a basin.Our results have implication for hydrological simulations and non point source pollution simulations in other similar complex topographical watershed.

Neural Network Simulation on Air Temperature and Relative Humidity inside Plastic Greenhouse during Winter and Spring in Southern China

LI Qian, SHEN Shuang-He, CAO Wen, ZOU Xue-Zhi

2012, 33(02):  190-196.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.006

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Based on the meteorological data both inside and outside the plastic greenhouse in Cixi, Zhejiang province and agricultural meteorological experimental station of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, three BP neural network models were established, which the input variable was chosen as radiation solar outdoor, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, and output variable was chosen as temperature indoor and relative humidity. The results showed that all of the root mean square error (RMSE) between trained air temperature and measured value from three models was no more than 2℃ and the relative error (RE) no more than 4% respectively. Both RMSE and RE between trained relative humidity and measured value was no more than 7 percent points and 7%. All of the RMSE between predicted air temperature and measured value from three models was 2℃ approximately, and their RE was no more than 6% in spring, less than that in winter. RMSE and RE predicated relative humidity and measured value was no more than 7percent points and 9% respectively. The results indicated that three BP neural network models had quite precisely for predicting temperature indoor and relative humidity in plastic greenhouse, which could meet the forecast requirements for plastic greenhouse microclimate.

Effect of Free Air CO2 Enrichment on Nitrogen Absorption in Leaf and Head of Winter Wheat

HAN Xue, HAO Xing-Yu, WANG He-Ran, LI Ying-Chun, LIN Er-Da

2012, 33(02):  197-201.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.007

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The effect of elevated CO2 and N supply on nitrogen content and uptake in flag leaf and head, the nitrate reductase activity (NRA) of flag leaf of winter wheat was studied at FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) system. The results showed that elevated CO2 increased 7.59% nitrogen content and 16.3% nitrogen uptake in head at dough stage, respectively, and decreased 10.98% nitrogen content and 22.24% nitrate reductase activity in flag leaf. Nitrogen uptake and nitrate reductase activity did not change significantly under normal nitrogen input than low nitrogen input. The results indicated that elevated CO2 increased N demand in head, inhibited the assimilation of NO3ˉ. So, it was not the best option for meeting more nitrogen demand in head to increase nitrogen input under elevated CO2.

Effects of Nitrogen Fertilization on Physiological Characteristics of Barley Leaves at Booting Stage under Enhanced UV-B Radiation

Lou-Yun-Sheng, WU Jun, YU Jin-Qiu, GUO Fei

2012, 33(02):  202-206.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.008

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Field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of nitrogen (N) supply on diurnal physiological characteristics in barley leaves at booting stage under enhanced UV-B radiation. The experiment was designed with two UV-B radiation levels, i.e. ambient (CK, 1.5kJ·m-2·h-1) and enhanced by 20% (1.8kJ·m-2·h-1), and two N supply levels, i.e. 30kg·ha-1(low) and 150kg·ha-1(high), and performed at the station of agricultural meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. The results showed that, enhanced UV-B radiation decreased net photosynthetic rate (Pn), transpiration rate (Tr), stomatal conductivity (Gs) and water use efficiency (WUE) by 44.6%, 21.8%, 17.8% and 28.4% under high N level, respectively, and reduced by 49.5%, 11.8%, 12.9% and 42.7% under low nitrogen level, respectively. The findings suggested that enhanced UV-B radiation depressed photosynthesis and water use efficiency in barley leaves, increasing N supply could alleviate the damage to net photosynthetic rate from enhanced UV-B radiation，but not to transpiration rate and stomatal conductivity. Based on the diurnal change of intercellular CO2 concentration in relation to net photosynthetic rate, it indicates that N supply and enhanced UV-B radiation impacted photosynthesis directly by the process of photosynthetic reaction, not by stomatal conductivity in barley leaves at booting stage.

Combination Effects of Elevated O3 and Enhanced UV-B Radiation on Biomass and Yield of Soybean

WU Rong-Jun, YAO Juan, ZHENG You-Fei, ZHANG Jin-En, LIU Rui-Na, XU Wei-Min, HU Hui-Fang

2012, 33(02):  207-214.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.009

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Responses of soybean (Glycine max,Bayuehuang) to enhanced ozone,supplemental UV-B radiation and in combination,were investigated in this paper by using open-top-chambers(OTCs).Four treatments were exposing to unfiltered air(CK),ozone content with 100nmol/mol(T1),UV-B radiation levels with 10% higher than control group(T2) and combination treatment(T3).The results showed that the single factor ozone or UV radiation had different degrees of negative effects on soybean height,leaf area,stem dry weight and other biomass.Combined impact of two factors was inconsistent,antagonism was showed mostly form branch period to pod bearing period,on the contrary,synergy was in the mayor role in the end of period fertility.The change of stem allocation index was relatively small,leaf and root allocation index was gradually reduced,and pod distribution index was rising rapidly under different treatments in the whole growth period.Thus,the single-factor stress of ozone or UV-B radiation on soybean biomass and yield was different degrees of negative effects,while the interactived effects were not equal to addition.

Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization Level on the Low Baseline of Crop Water Stress Index for Summer Maize in Red Soil

ZHAO Fu-Nian, CHEN Jia-Zhou, ZHANG Hong

2012, 33(02):  215-219.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.010

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The low baseline of summer maize water stress index with different N level treatments (0,120 and 240kg·ha-1) in red soil in south China under sunny and cloudy conditions was established.The results showed that the regression testing effects were significant(P＜0.01).Nitrogen fertilization had reduced low baseline of maize.The low baseline decreased with nitrogen fertilization increased.The results indicated that CWSI could be used to detect water status in red soil,where the climate type is subtropical monsoon.So the low baseline of maize could be defined in sunny condition in this region.The results also suggested that the low baseline of CWSI should be defined at comparable soil fertilization levels in specific region.

Effect of Modified Biochar on Soil Nitrate Nitrogen and Available Phosphorus Leaching

LI Ji-Hui, 吕Guo-Hua , BAI Wen-Bo, GUO Jin-Yi, SONG Ji-Qing, ZHANG Qing-Zhong

2012, 33(02):  220-225.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.011

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Modified biochar was studied as a soil additive in this paper to increase use efficiency of soil nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) and available phosphorous (P) in soil profile,and reduce the leaching risk.The best modified condition for crop biochar were determined by laboratory experiment and the effect of modified biochar on leaching of soil NO3-N and available P was studied by soil column simulation test.The Fe3+ to biochar mass ratio of 0.7 was tested to be the best modified condition which would increase the absorption of NO3-N and available P greatlyModified biochar could absorb 12 more times of NO3-N and 66 more times of available P compared to unmodified biochar,in a KNO3 solution with 50mg·L-1 N concentration and a 50mg·L-1 P concentration KH2PO4 solution,the maximum amount of absorption was 2.47mg·g-1for NO3-N and 1658mg·g-1 for available P,respectively When 2.5%,5% and 10% of best modified biochar was added in soil,the NO3-N leakage was significantly reduced,by 20%,43% and 59% respectively compared to the control with no biochar addition. Available P leakage was also significantly decreased,by 45%,59% and 75% respectively.This study demonstrated that adding modified biochar in soil could effectively reduce NO3-N and P leakage in the soil profile.

Effects of Flaveria bidentis Aqueous Extracts on the Height, Physiological and Biochemical Indexes of Maize Seedlings

TANG Xiu-Li, FU Wei-Dong, ZHANG Guo-Liang, TAN Wan-Zhong, ZHENG Hao

2012, 33(02):  226-231.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.012

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The maize seedlings grown in soilless media were treated with 3 concentrations (0.1, 0.05 and 0.01g/mL) of aqueous extract of aerial part of  Flaveria bidentis, and distilled water as control.Performances of MDA, POD, SOD, CAT and CHL of the maize leaves were measured and evaluated every four days.Results showed that 3 treatments had negative effects on the growth of maize.The negative effects were enhanced with the increase of extracts concentration.The level of MDA contents, POD, SOD and CAT activity of maize seedling leaves were significantly higher than control, but the content of CHL was obviously less than the control.Moreover, a significant interaction existed between the concentrations of  F.bidentis aqueous extracts and the treated time.It turned out that the extracts of F.bidentis could inhibit the seedling growth.Thus, the results provide evidence for the further research of F.bidentis.

Research Advances in Effects of Biochar Application on Agroecosystem

HUANG Jian, ZHANG Qing-Zhong, DU Zhang-Liu, WANG Yi-Ding

2012, 33(02):  232-239.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.013

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In this paper,the current studying progresses about the effects of biochar application on agro ecosystem with respect to soil physicochemical properties,soil microbes,carbon sequestration,crop productivity,and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission were reviewed.In summary,biochar application could improve soil fertility,soil biota habitat and nutrient use efficiency (nitrogen,phosphorus).On the other hand,there was still some uncertainty about the effects of biochar application on crop productivity (either yield or aboveground biomass).The stability of biochar played a key role in soil carbon accumulation,whereas the detailed degradation process of biochar had not been fully understood.Biochar affected the decomposition of native soil organic matter,known as the priming effect,while the priming direction (positive or negative) and magnitude varied by soil and biochar types.Considering the GHGs emission,the influence of biochar application on soil respiration and CH4 evolution had some uncertainty,whereas biochar application was proved to be effective in mitigating N2O emissions.These uncertainties mentioned above might be explained by the differences in biochar properties,application rates,soil types and fertility conditions.Thus,long term field experiments should be carried out in order to evaluate the influences and functions of biochar amendment objectively.

Forecast Model of Jujube Harvest in Chaoyang Based on Meteorological Factors

ZHANG Guo-Lin, ZHANG Fu-Rong, ZONG Ying-Fei, FENG Xue-Fei, DAI Hai-Yan, FENG Shu-Xia

2012, 33(02):  240-244.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.014

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The annual harvest forecast model of Jujube in Chaoyang was established by using a multiple linear regression method, based on selected meteorological factors from observed data from 1954 to 2010. The results showed that the significant affecting factors to Jujube were consistent days of the average minimum temperature ≤-20 ℃ in January, consistent overcast days in June, consistent days of daily precipitation ≤10mm from June to August, and daily precipitation during 15-30 September. The model fitting rate was 81.8% through Ftest method. The predicted results were close to the actual situation in 2009 and 2010.

Applicability of PyWOFOST Model Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter in Simulating Maize Yield in Northeast China


CHEN Si-Ning, ZHAO Yan-Xia, SHEN Shuang-He

2012, 33(02):  245-253.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.015

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PyWOFOST model based on Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was introduced to assimilate LAI into crop model. Meteorological data, agrometeorological data and MODIS LAI data were used to test the applicability of PyWOFOST model in simulating maize yield in Northeast China. 16 agrometeorological stations with effective MODIS LAI data which distributed evenly and contained all maize varieties in study area were selected to model maize LAI and yield on each stations at different levels of uncertainty of TSUM1(Thermal time from emergence to anthesis）. The result showed that, compared with WOFOST model, the PyWOFOST model greatly improved in simulating LAI and yield of maize. The mean errors of maize yield simulated by PyWOFOST were 10.32%，9.25%，7.31% and 8.49% at the uncertainty of TSUM1 with 0，10，20，30℃ respectively which all were lower than the mean error of maize yield (10.55%) simulated by WOFOST without assimilating LAI. The trajectory of LAI simulated by PyWOFOST which was more in line with maize growth and development trends was closer to observed LAI than LAI simulated by WOFOST. Therefore, the PyWOFOST based on EnKF was applicable for yield simulation of maize in Northeast China.

Determination of Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Suzhou under Global Warming

LI De, YANG Tai-Ming, ZHANG Xue-Xian

2012, 33(02):  254-258.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.016

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Climatic variation during winter wheat seeding to overwintering in Suzhou was analyzed by using tendency rate of linear variation, moving average method and mathematical statistics based on the observed meteorological data from 1954 to 2007. The results showed that the average daily temperature in regular seeding season increased at the rate of 0.4 ℃·10y-1(P＜0.01). 〖JP2〗The date of average daily temperature ≥16℃ in autumn, which was optimum temperature for winter wheat seeding, was delayed. The active accumulated temperature from regular seeding season to overwintering increased significantly(P＜0.01). The optimum seeding time for winter wheat postponed to 15-25 October, delayed 7-8 days than regular time with climate warming. Which was help to prevent prosperous grow before winter.

Low Temperature Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Crops in Fujian Province Based on MODIS Data

PAN Wei-Hua, CHEN Hui, ZHANG Chun-Gui, CHEN Jia-Jin

2012, 33(02):  259-264.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.017

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The land surface temperature and cropland information of Fujian were retrieved based on MODIS data. The land surface temperature retrieval model and cropland classification system were derived respectively by using the split windows algorithm and expert decision tree method. Furthermore, the low temperature risk assessment model of cropland was established by Surfer and ArcGIS software. The results showed that land surface temperature monitoring had high accuracy (83.56%) with the split windows algorithm. There was same in distribution of high and low temperature to observed data from meteorological stations, which could provide fine temperature difference and make up insufficient numbers of meteorological stations. The cropland information was extracted exactly from normalized difference vegetation index (NDWI) according to expert decision tree method. Three grades of low temperature risk assessment for major crops in Fujian province were divided, which included light (0.45-1.00), medium (0.24-0.45) and heavy (0-0.24) by using normalization method. The results revealed the surface low temperature layout and risk pattern of crops in detail, which could provide reference for crops regionalization and low temperature risk assessment.

Survey Methods of Sugarcane Plant Area Based on HJ-1 CCD Data

DING Mei-Hua, TAN Zong-Kun, LI Hui, YANG Yu-Hong, ZHANG Xing-Qing, MO Jian-Fei, HE Li, MO Wei-Hua, WANG Jun-Hua

2012, 33(02):  265-270.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.018

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The training area of sugarcane and other crops was surveyed by using handheld GPS in Nanning. The information of sugarcane planting was extracted by analyzing the variation regularity of spectral characteristics of sugarcane, by using remote sensing methods combining supervised classification, gradual elimination and decision tree classification, based on the multitemporal HJ-1 CCD satellite data in training area. The results showed that the classification precision reached 92.3% both from space distribution trend or area data, the environmental mitigation satellite data (HJ-1) and the classification method could meet the requirements of precision of sugarcane plant area for sugar companies, which could be applied to the sugar companies and other research.

Response of NDVI in Different Climatic Zone to Climate Change in Songnen Plain

HOU Guang-Lei, LIU De-Ying, ZHANG Zheng-Xiang, GUO Dan, ZHANG Hong-Yan

2012, 33(02):  271-277.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.019

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Songnen plain was divided into climatic zones with thornthwaite humid index. The time lag character of the NDVI to climate change was discussed by using correlation between the SPOT/VGT NDVI and meteorological data. The results showed that there were significant positive correlation between NDVI and mean temperature, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature 10 day (P＜0.01), between NDVI and precipitation, relative humidity 10 day (P<0.05). The minimum temperature 10 day was restrictive factor to NDVI. Precipitation was the most important contributor to NDVI in humid and semihumid area, but the relative humidity was more important to NDVI than precipitation in semi arid area. Time lag of NDVI to temperature was 20 days in humid region, 20~30 days in semihumid region and 30 days in semi arid days, and which to precipitation was 30 days in humid region, 20 days in semihumid region and 10 days in semi arid days. Time lag of NDVI to humidity was shorter than that to precipitation.

Overview on Modern Agricultural Weather ForecastService and Relative Issues

MA Shu-Qing

2012, 33(02):  278-282.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.020

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In order to develop modern agricultural weather service and enhance the ability of meteorological services for farmers, the paper expounded the definition, principles, business content, technology method and work process of modern agricultural weather forecast, and discussed relative issues, such as the vocational work limits, timeliness of forecasts, key regional business, based on the demand of the general agriculture, which covering agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline and fishery. The paper pointed out modern agricultural weather forecast service based on the relevance of agricultural production and the weather, optional principle of farming activities, and improvement of weather forecasting capacity, and the character of the service was changed as follows. Firstly, integration of weather forecasting was emphasized, which included agrometeorological indicators 〖JP2〗and evaluation techniques rather than agrometeorological forecasting only. Secondly, serving was extended to for forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries and agricultural facilities apart from for crops. Thirdly, higher capacity for weather forecasting, including occurring time, place and number. Fourth, quantitative and objective was improved because of support of modern information technology and business systems. The paper suggested that the agricultural weather service should definite the work limits, focus on regional characteristics and focal point of the work, and pay more attention to the timeliness and usefulness of business products.

Analysis of Agrometeorological Disasters Tendency Variation andthe Impacts on Grain Yield over Northeast China

MA Jian-Yong, XU Yin-Long, PAN Jie

2012, 33(02):  283-288.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.021

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 Based on disasteraffected areas of drought, flood, windhail, low temperature, combining with grain yield data in Northeast China from 1971 to 2009, agrometeorological disasters tendency variation and their impacting on grain yield in Northeast China had been studied in this paper. The tendency variation results showed that, in recent 39 years, only disasteraffected area ratio of windhail presented decreasing tendency obviously, while flood, drought and low temperature existed phase characteristics. In 1970s, disasteraffected area ratio of drought was higher than flood, which was on the contrary in 1980-1990s, and recent period was in relatively dry phase again, in terms of low temperature, it began to rebound in early 1990s and early 21st century. R/S analysis showed that Hurst index results of 4 agrometeorological disasters were more than 0.5, indicating future tendency variation would be consistent with the past, namely, disasteraffected area ratio of windhail would continue to decrease, and drought would maintain the increment, while flood and low temperature would present fluctuant trend. Gray correlation analysis indicated that the impaction of agrometeorological disasters on average grain yield performed differently in different provinces, in Liaoning as, drought＞windhail＞flood＞low temperature, in Jilin as, flood＞drought＞low temperature＞windhail, in Heilongjiang as, drought＞flood＞low temperature＞windhail, which revealed drought and flood were major agrometeorological disasters during grain production, and the impacts of low temperature was much greater towards the high latitude in Northeast China.

Study on Characteristics of Rice Heat Damages in Jiangsu Province under theBackground of Climate Warming and Its Influence on the Rice Yield

BAO Yun-Xuan, LIU Wei, GAO Ping, SHEN Shuang-He

2012, 33(02):  289-296.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.022

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Based on the observed data of conventional meteorological stations in Jiangsu province from 1960 to 2009 and the investigated data of the rice growth periods from 1980 to 2009, in this paper, the different growth periods of rice was calculated and determined statistically, the appropriate indicators of rice heat damage was selected, the temperature anomaly,the variability of its climatic trend and MK test were used to reflect the characteristics of climate warming in the different regions of Jiangsu province. The spatialtemporal distribution pattern of the rice heat damages in these regions was analyzed and the influence of the climate warming on it was discussed. The results showed as follows: (1)the heat damages of rice in Jiangsu province concentrated in the two growth periods from jointing to booting and heading to initial ripping. The occurrence frequency of rice heat damage in the south part of Jiangsu province was highest, it situated at the second place in the the region between the Yantze river and Huaihe river and the northern side of the Huaihe river and the coastal region of the province were the distribution regions of the low frequencies. (2) There were the obvious cycles of 13 years and 3 years in the occurrence frequencies of rice heat damages of Jiangsu province. The former was the main cycle and the later was the secondary cycle. (3) The annual average climatic trend variability of air temperature in Jiangsu province attained 0.2775℃·10y-1 from 1960 to 2009(P<0.01)and it was obvious for climate warming. As the annual average temperature of all regions decreased from 1960s and attained the lowest values in 1980s, it increased later and attained the highest values in the beginning ten years of 21st century. Respectively, the occurrence tendencies of the rice heat damages in the different regions were consistent to the evolution of the temperature. The occurrence frequency of the heat damage was the least in 1980s and the largest in the beginning ten years of 21st century. (4) The higher the mean temperature of July and August was, the more the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage was. For the north side of the Huaihe river, the mean temperature of July and August was highest in 1960s and the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage was most in this decade. But in the other regions of the province, the mean temperature of July and August was highest in 2000s and the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage was most in this decade. (5) In view of the interannual change, the occurrence frequencies of the rice heat damages were higher in the warmer climate years and the yields of rice were lower. It demonstrated that the climate warming was one of the important factors caused the increasing of the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage and the reducing of rice yields in Jiangsu province.

Methods Review of Monitoring, Evaluation and Forecasting ofCrop Cold Damage

CHENG Yong-Xiang, WANG Xiu-Zhen, GUO Jian-Ping, ZHAO Yan-Xia, HUANG Jing-Feng

2012, 33(02):  297-303.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.023

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The advances in the study of cold damage indicators, cold damage monitoring, risk and loss assessment, cold damage forecast and business application were summarized in this paper. Comparison was carried out to their advantages and disadvantages of the traditional and new research methods in these areas. The application of 3S technology and crop model in cold damage research was mainly introduced. The possible ways that combined remote sensing with cold damage monitoring was investigated in cold damage research. These issues were discussed such as crop model scale conversion and cold module adding at regional cold damage loss assessment. The challenges and difficulties in further research were also proposed. The results could provide reference for technical innovation of cold damage research.

Effect of Low Temperature at Heading Stage on Seed Setting Rate ofMajor Rice Varieties in Heilongjiang Province

ZHU Hai-Xia, WANG Qiu-Jing, YAN Ping, JI Yang-Hui, WANG Ping, JIANG Li-Xia

2012, 33(02):  304-309.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.024

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In order to reveal the effect of cold damage to rice setting rate, the coldresistant experiment was conducted with artificial climate chamber in Heilongjiang province, four major rice varieties with different coldresistant was selected. The results showed that the setting rate of Kongyu131 was 87% with strongest cold resistance after treatment of 8 days under 15℃, following by Longdao3 and Longdao7, and Kendao12 was 61.5 with slight cold resistant. The temperature of sterile type cold damage of Kongyu 〖JP2〗131 was 15℃〖KG*2〗at heading stage, after the treatment from 4 to 8 days, following by Longdao 3 and Longdao 7（16℃）, and Kendao 12（17℃）. The setting rate of all rice verities reduced to 743% with same accumulated temperature in one day (15℃). So the sterile type cool injury was severe for rice that was consistently in low temperature. Diurnal temperature variation reduced the setting rate from 79.5% to 82.4%, namely sterile type cold damage was weaker than that in normal temperature during partial period.

Effect of Meteorological Condition on Overwintering Mortality Rate f  Matsucoccus Matsumurae

YUAN Fu-Xiang, LIU Shi, HU Yan-Quan, ZHANG Yu-Shu, ZHANG Tie-Li

2012, 33(02):  310-314.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.025

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Matsucoccus matsumurae is the main pest endangered the pine. Meteorological condition of overwintering periods is the important factor of affecting population change. The effect of meteorological factors on  Matsucoccus matsumurae’mortality rate of overwintering was analyzed by using discriminate analysis, based on the selected meteorological factors. The results showed that  the lower the average lowest temperature of every ten ay period of November, the last tenday period of December and the first tenday period of March was, the higher mortality rate was. The more rainfall of the first tenday period of April was,the higher the mortality rate was. The prediction model of  Matsucoccus matsumurae’ mortality rate during overwintering was established by selecting meteorological factors, which has a direct bearing on  Matsucoccus matsumurae’ mortality rate and with longer statistic years, and the accuracy rate was 72%.The model could be used for preventing and controlling  Matsucoccus matsumurae.