未来气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的差异性研究——基于Meta回归分析的定量综述

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对2017年以前预测未来气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的国内外相关研究进行了综述，并对其中26篇研究信息相对全面完整的文献进行Meta分析，总结了原始独立研究预测结果的差异，并讨论差异的可能来源，以期为本领域后续研究提供依据。结果表明：（1）未来气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响存在一定不确定性，但以负面影响为主；A2和B2主流气候情景下预测的小麦产量减产幅度较其它气候情景分别高18%和20%。（2）政策、技术、市场和投入等非气候性因素有助于适应气候变化，引入这些因素时小麦增产幅度预测结果增加10%；（3）研究数据和方法对预测结果有显著影响，预测时间间隔每延长一年，小麦产量增幅和减幅预测结果提高1%，进行产量分离、采用相应的气候模型和作物模型对预测增幅有显著的正向影响，增加水平分别为26%、22%和18%；（4）期刊文献比非期刊文献的产量增幅预测结果平均高5%。

关键词: 气候变化, 小麦产量, 差异性, Meta分析

Abstract:

In order to explain the differences in wheat yield prediction results and provide a reference for the following-up study in this field, this paper summarized the domestic and foreign researches on the impact of future climate change on China’s wheat yield by 2017, and analyzed the literatures of 26 relatively comprehensive and complete literatures, and discussed the possibility of differences in the results of the original independent research. The results showed that: (1) the effects of future climate change on wheat production were uncertain, and negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones; the projected reductions in wheat production under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios were 18% and 20% higher than those in other climate scenarios.(2) The non-climatic factors such as policy, technology, market and input could help to adapt to climate change; the yield of wheat considering these factors would increase by 10%. (3) Research data and methods may had a significant impact on the projections; the wheat yield of positive change would increase by 1% and the wheat yield of negative change would decrease by 1% when the projected time interval increased one year; separating yield, using corresponding climate models and crop models would have a significant positive effect on the increasing yield, with the level of 26%, 22% and 18%, respectively. (4) The projections of journal literatures were 5% higher than those outcomes summarized from non-journal literatures.

Key words: Climate change, Wheat yield, Difference, Meta-analysis

周景博，刘亮. 未来气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的差异性研究——基于Meta回归分析的定量综述[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(03): 141-151.

ZHOU Jing-bo，LIU Liang. Study on the Differences of the Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Yield in China—Quantitative Review Based on Meta Regression Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(03): 141-151.

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