中国农业气象 ›› 2010, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (S1): 40-42.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

聊城地区气候变化对农业的影响与对策

张荣霞;隋岩;杨秀华;张寅;   

  1. 山东聊城市气象局;山东省气象科技服务中心;山东东阿气象局;
  • 出版日期:2010-12-20 发布日期:2010-12-20

Characteristic of Climate Change and its Impact on Liaocheng Agricultural Production and the Adaption Countermeasure

ZHANG Rong-xia1,SUI Yan2,YANG Xiu-hua1,ZHANG Yin3(1.Liaocheng Meteorological Office,Liaocheng 252060,Shandong Province,China;2.Shandong Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center,Jinan 250031;3.Dong'e Meteorological Office,Dong'e 252000,Shandong Province)   

  • Online:2010-12-20 Published:2010-12-20

摘要: 本文分析了聊城市近50a来的气象资料,结果显示50a来气候发生了一定的变化,主要表现在:一是年平均气温呈明显的升高趋势。冬季气温升高最为明显,1989-2008年,出现了14个暖冬。二是降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少26.3mm。三是日照时数减少,平均年日照时数呈逐年减少趋势,夏季减少最为明显。四是极端气候事件明显增多。20世纪90年代以来,全市高温、暴雨天数呈增加趋势,旱涝灾害交替发生,频率和强度明显上升,暴雪、暴雨、冬春季气温异常偏高等极端气候事件不断出现。据预测,未来的气候变暖趋势将进一步加剧,未来气温将呈上升趋势,降水量增加,极端最高气温和极端最低气温持续上升,极端天气气候事件发生的频率可能性增大,将对农业生产产生很大的影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 利弊分析, 农作物布局, 对策建议

Abstract: Through analyzing the meteorological data in recent fifty years of LiaoCheng station,the result showed that there was some changes of climate.Firstly,the annual average temperature increased gradually and especially in winter,it appeared 14 warm winters from 1989 to 2008.Secondly,the precipitation was decreased obviously and it was reduced 26.3mm average per 10 years.Thirdly,the annual average sunshine duration was cut down,especially in summer.Fourthly,the extreme climatic events were raised highly.Since 1990s,the urban high temperature and the rainstorm days increased gradually,the drought and waterlogging damage occurred in turn seriously.It was predicted that the climate warming tendency would intensify further in future and the temperature would rise,the precipitation was going to increase,the extremely highest temperature and lowest temperature would rise constantly.However,the extreme weather climate event occurring frequently would do great effects on agricultural production.Finally,the climate change brought both benefit and disadvantage to agricultural production.This article tried to find a way to figure out how to deal with climate change,how to utilize climatic resources utter mostly,and then to make a adjustment to planting.

Key words: Climate change, Advantages and disadvantages analysis, Crop distribution, Countermeasure and suggestion