关键词: CERESRice模型, 气候变化, 水稻

Abstract: In order to research the effect of climate change on the yield and planting of rice, firstly, using the meteorological data from 2004 to 2005 and the experimental data of rice conducted by Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences as the input data of CERESRice model, the genotype parameters of rice cultivar Qianliangyou are obtained by calibration and validation processes. Then, based on the calibrated genotype parameters and the meteorological data from 1962 to 2006, the growth and development processes of rice in Guizhou during the past 44 years under the same soil and management practices is dynamic simulated. The results showed that the decreasing trend of total radiation and the rice yield are not significant during the past 44 years. The weak trend of delayed anthesis time was also not significant under the conditions of the descending trend during the summer and the ascending trend of accumulated thermal time during the growth season. The result of the simulated treatments of sowing date indicates that seeding time in practice at present is suitable during the past years, and sowing date of rice in Guiyang can be advanced a few days corresponding to chilling damage in the autumn.

Key words: CERESRice model, Climate change, Rice