四川单季稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期高温热害时空特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.006

中国农业气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (01): 46-58.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.006

四川单季稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期高温热害时空特征

刘佳，陈超，张玉芳，庞艳梅，陈东东，赖江

1．四川省气候中心，成都 610072；2．中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，成都 610072；3．四川省农业气象中心，成都 610072；4．南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室，成都 610066；5．高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室，成都 610072

收稿日期:2017-04-26 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-01-19
作者简介:刘佳（1985-），女，工程师，主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail：liujia851229@163.com
基金资助:
中国气象局西南区域重大科研业务项目（2014-08）；国家重点研发计划“粮食丰产增效科技创新专项”项目“四川盆地水稻高温干旱灾害减灾保产调控关键技术研究”（2017YFD0300409-3）；高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题（PAEKL-2017-C4）

Space-time Distribution of High Temperature Disasters on Single-cropping Rice during Heading-flowering Stage and Filling-harvest Stage in Sichuan Province

LIU Jia, CHEN Chao, ZHANG Yu-fang, PANG Yan-mei, CHEN Dong-dong，LAI Jiang

1. Sichuan Provincial Climate Centre, Chengdu 610072, China；2. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072；3.Sichuan Provincial Agricultural Meteorological Centre, Chengdu 610072；4. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066；5.Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072

Received:2017-04-26 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-01-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用四川省84个气象观测站1961-2014年逐日平均气温、最高气温和日平均相对湿度等气象资料以及1981-2014年水稻空壳率数据，通过线性回归法、多项式回归法、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析水稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期高温热害的时空变化规律。结果表明： 1961-2014年高温热害总次数呈上升趋势，不同等级热害发生次数的年际变化特点与总次数一致，尤以2000年后增幅显著，其中抽穗扬花期轻度热害和灌浆结实期重度热害的增幅最显著，这与气候变暖背景下，1990年以来水稻高温热害区域增多的趋势基本一致；不同生育期内各等级高温热害发生次数均有显著的周期震荡规律，方差值在16a、12a、4a时间尺度上均出现峰值，依据周期变化推测，2015年后高温热害将持续偏多。依据高温热害“山区少、盆地多”的分布特征，可将盆中浅丘区及盆南丘陵区划分为热害频发区，盆东岭谷区为热害偶发区，川西南山地为热害少发区。在气候变暖背景下，1990年以来不同等级高温热害均呈现发生频率增多，范围扩大，高发中心从平原向山地扩大的趋势。本研究实现了水稻高温热害监测产品由定性向定量化的转变，融合常规高温指标的动态监测，提高了空间分布的精细度，延长了研究的时效性，更具针对性和指导性。

关键词: 水稻, 高温热害指数, 高温热害累积指数, Morlet小波分析

Abstract: In this paper, spatial-temporal variation characteristics of high temperature disasters on single-cropping rice during heading-flowering stage and filling-harvest stage were analyzed with agricultural data including meteorology, rice production and agro-meteorology from 1961 to 2014 in Sichuan province by linear regression, multiple regression, Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the total and different grades of high temperature disaster occurrence times were a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2014, especially after 2000. The mild heat damage increased significantly during heading-flowering stage, and the severe heat damage increased significantly during filling-harvest stage. The different grades of high temperature disaster occurrence times showed a significant periodic oscillation during growth period on 16 years, 12 years, 4 years time scale. Based on periodic changes speculated, it will remain high temperature disaster in 2015. The distribution of heat injury spatial pattern showed “less in mountainous and multi in basin”. Rice planting area can be divided into: high temperature disaster often occurred in central plain area and southern hilly of basin, seldom happen in eastern hilly of basin, less happened in southwest mountain. Under the background of climate warming, the frequency of different grades of high temperature disaster has increased, and frequent center has expanded from the plains to the mountain since 1990. This study has realized the transition of high temperature disasters monitoring products which from qualitative to quantitative. It combined the dynamic monitoring, improved the accuracy of the spatial distribution, and extended timeliness of the study.

Key words: Rice, High temperature disasters, High temperature heat damage accumulation index, Morlet wavelet analysis

刘佳，陈超，张玉芳，庞艳梅，陈东东，赖江. 四川单季稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期高温热害时空特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(01): 46-58.

LIU Jia, CHEN Chao, ZHANG Yu-fang, PANG Yan-mei, CHEN Dong-dong，LAI Jiang. Space-time Distribution of High Temperature Disasters on Single-cropping Rice during Heading-flowering Stage and Filling-harvest Stage in Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(01): 46-58.

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四川单季稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期高温热害时空特征

Space-time Distribution of High Temperature Disasters on Single-cropping Rice during Heading-flowering Stage and Filling-harvest Stage in Sichuan Province

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