Abstract: In recent years,the frequency and extend of the spring drought occurrence increased in Linyi city.Based on the precipitation data of Linyi city in 1971-2009,spring drought degree was divided by precipitation departure method.The prediction model of spring drought degree was established by using the Grey GM(1,1) and Residual Correction Model.The results showed that the original sequence model equation had good precision for mild spring drought prediction,and the model based on the three times residual series had good precision for moderate and severe spring drought.The next mild spring drought might occur in 2010,the moderate and severe spring drought might occur in 2018 in Linyi.

Key words: Spring drought, Spring drought, Different degree, Grey GM(1, 1) Model, Residual Series, Prediction