Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (02): 240-244.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.014

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Forecast Model of Jujube Harvest in Chaoyang Based on Meteorological Factors

ZHANG  Guo-Lin, ZHANG  Fu-Rong, ZONG  Ying-Fei, FENG  Xue-Fei, DAI  Hai-Yan, FENG  Shu-Xia   

  1. Chaoyang Meteorological Bureau, Chaoyang122000, China
  • Received:2011-05-20 Online:2012-05-20 Published:2012-08-30
  • About author:ZHANG Guo-Lin, ZHANG Fu-Rong, ZONG Ying-Fei, FENG Xue-Fei, DAI Hai-Yan, FENG Shu-Xia

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Abstract: The annual harvest forecast model of Jujube in Chaoyang was established by using a multiple linear regression method, based on selected meteorological factors from observed data from 1954 to 2010. The results showed that the significant affecting factors to Jujube were consistent days of the average minimum temperature ≤-20 ℃ in January, consistent overcast days in June, consistent days of daily precipitation ≤10mm from June to August, and daily precipitation during 15-30 September. The model fitting rate was 81.8% through Ftest method. The predicted results were close to the actual situation in 2009 and 2010.

Key words: Jujube, Annual harvest, Meteorological factors, Forecasting model, Chaoyang

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