关键词: 早稻, 气候生产潜力, 定量评估

Abstract: Based on the day-to-day meteorological elements from 85 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 in Jiangxi province,it constructed a computing model of climatic potential productivity according to the three class productive potential with photosynthesis,photosynthesis-temperature and climate in order to scientifically assess the influence on early rice production by climatic change.The author took the photosynthesis potential productivity,temperature suitability and moisture suitability as basic assessment factors,calculated the values of photosynthesis,photosynthesis-temperature,and climate,quantitative assessed the influenced on early rice production by climatic change,and analyzed its spatial and temporal distribution.The result indicated: 1) In Jiangxi province,the photosynthesis potential productivity and the moisture condition was showed downtrend,the photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity had the tendency of increasing of early rice from 1971 to 2000,which resulted in the climatic potential productivity of early rice was on the decline totally;2) To the climatic potential productivity of early rice,the Poyang Lake area of north part,the middle part and the middle area of south part were belonged to high value areas,the northeast part and midwest part belonged to relatively low value areas;3)In general,the heat condition of whole province was better,the photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity was more then 76 percent of the photosynthesis potential productivity in different areas,so the improvement of heat condition was good for the production of early rice;4) The instability of climatic potential productivity of early rice was comparatively large in Jiangxi province,the south part had the best climatic stability,and the average climatic potential productivity was the largest in Poyang Lake area.Finally,according to the changing characteristic of climatic productive condition of early rice,the paper put forward some suggestions that how to adapt to climatic change and assure the steady growth of early rice production.

Key words: Early rice, Climatic potential productivity, Qualitative assessment