华北平原冬小麦产量变异的气象影响因子分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.10.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用1988-2015年华北平原冬小麦种植区46个市的统计产量和相应46个气象站点的逐日气象资料，通过Logistic曲线和双曲线方法分离出气象产量，并构建气象产量与生长季主要气象因子的多元统计关系，以明确华北平原冬小麦产量变异的气象影响因子。结果表明：（1）1988-2015年华北平原冬小麦产量在3200～6800kg·hm-2，中部地区产量最高，南部地区产量的变异高于中部和北部地区。（2）生长季日照时数、温度和降水平均值的年际变化影响了17%～78%的气象产量的变异，其中54%的地区达到显著水平（P＜0.05）。影响程度较高的地区主要分布在河北南部、山东西部和河南的东北部地区。（3）播种-返青阶段的降水显著影响产量变异，降水量每增加1%，天津、驻马店及山东西北部等地产量将上升13～74kg·hm-2，而河北北部、河南南部、山东南部等地产量将下降16～80kg·hm-2。返青-成熟阶段对产量变异影响较大的因子为最低气温，平均最低气温每上升1-C，天津和石家庄、山东东部和西部及河南东部等地产量将增加50～295kg·hm-2，而北京、唐山和枣庄等地将减少76～124kg·hm-2。总体来看，温度对华北平原冬小麦产量变异影响范围更广且更加显著，但气象因子对产量变异的影响受局地品种和管理措施等影响呈现较大的空间差异。

关键词: 产量变率, 气象产量, 日照时数, 温度, 降水

Abstract: The meteorological influencing factors on variation in winter wheat yield in the North China Plain (NCP) were investigated by developing yield?meteorological factor relationship based on statistical yield of 46 cities and daily meteorological data from 46 meteorological stations from 1988 to 2015. The results showed that statistical yield of winter wheat ranged from 3200 to 6800kg·ha?1 in 1988?2015 with higher yield in the central NCP and higher yield variation in the southern NCP. The variation in growing season main meteorological factors including sunshine hours, temperature and precipitation could account for 17%?78% of variation in the climatic yield of winter wheat with statistical significance at 54% of the cities (P<0.05). The regions with high influencing degree were mainly concentrated in the southern Hebei, southern Shandong and northeastern Henan. Precipitation during the growing period of sowing to turning-green had significant impacts on meteorological yield of winter wheat. Meteorological yield of winter wheat increased by 13-74kg·ha-1 in Tianjin, Zhumadian and northwestern Shandong if amount of precipitation during the period increased by 1%, while the meteorological yield in southern Henan and southern Shandong decreased by 16-80kg·ha-1. Minimum temperature during the growing period of turning-green to maturity had significant impacts on variation in meteorological yield of winter wheat. Average minimum temperature during the period increased by 1-C would increase meteorological yield by 50-295kg·ha-1 in Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, the eastern and western Shandong, and the western Henan, but would decrease meteorological yield by 76-124kg·ha-1 in Beijing, Tangshan and Zaozhuang. In general, the temperature had significant impact on the variation of winter wheat yield at more sites than sunshine hours and precipitation. However, there was a large spatial difference in meteorological influencing factors on variation in winter wheat yield due to complex interaction of meteorological factors, cultivar and agronomic management practices.

Key words: Yield variation, Meteorological yield, Sunshine hours, Temperature, Precipitation

吴冰洁，王靖，唐建昭，王娜，徐琳，白慧卿，郑隽卿，王娜，李扬. 华北平原冬小麦产量变异的气象影响因子分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(10): 623-635.

WU Bing-jie, WANG Jing, TANG Jian-zhao, WANG Na, XU Lin, BAI Hui-qing, ZHENG Jun-qing, WANG Na, LI Yang. Meteorological Influencing Factors on Variation in Winter Wheat Yield in the North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(10): 623-635.

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