[1] 中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2013[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2013.
National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China Statistical Yearbook 2013[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[2] 杨晓光,刘志娟.作物产量差研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(14):2731-2741.
Yang X G,Liu Z J.Advances in research on crop yield gaps[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2014,47(14):2731-2741. (in Chinese)
[3] 刘巽浩,胡跃高,陈阜.粮食:中国农业的永恒难题与主题[J].农业现代化研究,2010,31(4):385-391.
Liu X H,Hu Y G,Chen F.The problem of cereals: eternal theme and difficult problem of Chinese agriculture[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization,2010,31(4):385-391. (in Chinese)
[4] Wang F,He Z,Sayre K,et al.Wheat cropping systems and technologies in China[J].Field Crops Research,2009,111(3): 181-188.
[5] Zhang P,Wei T,Wang H X,et al.Effects of straw mulch on soil water and winter wheat production in dryland farming[J]. Scientific Reports,2015,5:10725.
[6] Schapendonk A,Xu H Y,Putten P,et al.Heat-shock effects on photosynthesis and sink-source dynamics in wheat(Triticum aestivum L.)[J].NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 2008,55(1):37-54.
[7] 田展,梁卓然,史军,等.近50年气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(9):61-69.
Tian Z,Liang Z R,Shi J,et al.Analysis of impact on China wheat potential productivity of climate change during 1961-2010[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulleti,2013,29(9): 61-69.(in Chinese)
[8] Fang S B,Cammarano D,Zhou G S,et al. Effects of increased day and night temperature with supplemental infrared heating on winter wheat growth in North China[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2015,64:67-77.
[9] 郑娜,刘秀位,王锡平.利用产量差距方法进行华北冬小麦产量受气候影响规律的分析:以河北省栾城县为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(2):234-240.
Zheng N,Liu X W,Wang X P.Determining the effects of climate on winter wheat yield in Northern China via yield gap analysis:a case study of Luancheng county,Hebei province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(2):234-240.(in Chinese)
[10] 闫素辉,李文阳,杨安中,等.弱光对小麦花后旗叶光合及籽粒灌浆的影响[J].麦类作物学报,2011,31(1):77-81.
Yan S H,Li W Y,Yang A Z,et al.Effects of weak light at grain filling stage on photosynthetic characteristics and grain filling of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2011, 31(1):77-81.(in Chinese)
[11] 张黎萍,荆奇,戴廷波,等.温度和光照强度对不同品质类型小麦旗叶光合特性和衰老的影响[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(2):311-316.
Zhang L P,Jing Q,Dai T B,et al.Effects of temperature and illumination on flag leaf photosynthetic characteristics and senescence of wheat cultivars with different grain quality[J]. The Journal of Applied Ecology,2008,19(2):311-316.(in Chinese)
[12] 谭凯炎,杨晓光,任三学,等.高温胁迫对华北地区冬小麦灌浆及产量的影响[J].生态学报,2015,35(19):6355-6361.
Tan K Y,Yang X G,Ren S X,et al.Impact of high temperature stress at the grain-filling stage on winter wheat yield[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(19):6355-6361.(in Chinese)
[13] 许世卫,喻闻,刘淑云,等.冬小麦单产与气象因素关系研究:以山东省微山县为例[J].农学学报,2013,3(10):45-51.
Xu S W,Yu W,Liu S Y,et al.The impact of meteorological factors on the winter wheat yield:the case study from Weishan county, Shandong province[J].Journal of Agricul- ture,2013,3(10):45-51.(in Chinese)
[14] 肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014, 22(4):430-438.
Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014,22(4):430-438.(in Chinese)
[14] Asseng S,Jamieson P D,Kimball B,et al.Simulated wheat growth affected by rising temperature, increased water deficit and elevated atmospheric CO2[J].Field Crops Resear- ch,2004,85(2-3):85-102.
[15] 吴东丽,王春乙,薛红喜,等.华北地区冬小麦干旱风险区划[J].生态学报,2011,31(3):760-769.
Wu D L,Wang C Y,Xue H X,et al.The drought risk zoning of winter wheat in North China[J].Acta EcologicaSinica,2011, 31(3):760-769.(in Chinese)
[16] 王素艳,霍治国,李世奎,等.北方冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划[J].作物学报,2005,31(3):267-274.
Wang S Y,Huo Z G,Li S K,et al.Risk regionalization of winter wheat loss caused by drought in North of China[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica,2005,31(3):267-274.(in Chinese)
[17] 王春乙,张玉静,张继权.华北地区冬小麦主要气象灾害风险评价[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(s1):203-213.
Wang C Y,Zhang Y J,Zhang J Q.Risk assessment of main meteorological disasters of winter wheat in North China[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2016,32(s1):203-213.(in Chinese)
[18] Lobell D B,Schlenker W,Costa R.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J].Science,2011,333(6042): 616-620.
[19] Lobell D B,Field C B.Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming[J]. Environ- mental Research Letters,2007,2(1):1-7.
[20] You L Z,Rosegrant M W,Wood S,et al.Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2009,149(6):1009- 1014.
[21] Tao F L,Yokozawa M,Liu J Y,et al.Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends[J].Climate Research,2008,38(1):83-94.
[22] 杨继武.农业气象预报和情报[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.
Yang J W.Agricultural meteorological forecast and informa- tion[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[23] 傅友兰,屈宝香,李刚,等.中国粮食产量变化与年际波动特点分析[J].中国食物与营养,2012,18(1):16-19.
Fu Y L,Qu B X,Li G,et al.Changes of food production and the characteristics of inter-annual fluctuations in China[J]. Food and Nutrition in China,2012,18(1):16-19.(in Chinese)
[24] Lu C,Fan L.Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain[J].Field Crops Research,2013,143(1): 98-105.
[25] 莫兴国,林忠辉,刘苏峡.黄淮海地区冬小麦生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(3): 449-457.
Mo X G,Lin Z H,Liu S X.Spatial-temporal evolution and driving forces of winter wheat productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2006,21(3):449-457.(in Chinese)
[26] 李克南.华北地区冬小麦-夏玉米作物生产体系产量差特征解析[D].北京:中国农业大学,2014.
Li K N.Yield gap analysis focused on winter wheat and summer maize rotation in the North China Plain[D].Beijing:China Agricultural University,2014.(in Chinese)
[27] 房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):13-18.
Fang S B.Exploration of method for discrimination between trend crop yield and climatic fluctuant yield[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(6):13-18.(in Chinese)
[28] 王媛,方修琦,徐锬.气候变化背景下“气候产量”计算方法的探讨[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(4):531-536.
Wang Y,Fang X Q,Xu T.A method for calculating the climatic yield of grain under climate change[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2004,19(4):531-536.(in Chinese)
[29] 王桂芝,陆金帅,陈克垚,等.基于HP滤波的气候产量分离方法探讨[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):195-199.
Wang G Z,Lu J S,Chen K Y,et al.Exploration of method in separating climatic output based on HP filter[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):195-199.(in Chinese)
[30] 赵东妮,王艳华,任传友,等.3种水稻趋势产量拟合方法的比较分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(3):345-355.
Zhao D N,Wang Y H,Ren C Y,et al.Comparative analysis of three fitting methods of rice trend yield[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2017,25(3):345-355.(in Chinese)
[31] 赵凯娜,宁晓菊,秦耀辰,等.县域冬小麦生育期气候要素与产量的灰色关联度分析:以河南省为例[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(11):729-737.
Zhao K N, Ning X J, Qin Y C, et al. Grey correlation analysis between climatic elements during winter wheat growing period and yield in counties:a case study of Henan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(11):729-737.(in Chinese)
[32] 刘涛,周广胜,谭凯炎,等.华北地区冬小麦灌溉制度及其环境效应研究进展[J].生态学报,2016,36(19):5979-5986.
Liu T,Zhou G S,Tan K Y,et al.Review on research of irrigation regime and its environmental effect in winter wheat field of North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(19):5979-5986.(in Chinese)
[33] 柳芳,黎贞发.降水量和积温变化对天津冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):431-435.
Liu F,Li Z F.Impacts of precipitation and accumulated temperature on winter wheat yield in tianjin[J].Chinese Jour- nal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(3):431-435.(in Chinese)
[34] 何守法,董中东,詹克慧,等.豫中补灌区主要气候因子对小麦产量的影响[J].河南农业科学,2009,19(7):47-49.
He S F,Dong Z D,Zhan K H,et al.Influence of main climatic factors on yield of wheat in irrigation area of Henan province[J].Henan Agricultural Sciences,2009,19(7):47-49. (in Chinese)
[35] 赵孟伟.气象因素对开封地区冬小麦产量影响的通径分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2015,36(4):26-31.
Zhao M W.Path analysis on the influence of meteorological factors on winter wheat yield in the Kaifeng area[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources & Electric Power,2015,36(4):26-31.(in Chinese)
[36] 张怡,史本林.气候变化对豫东冬小麦产区的综合影响[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(2):336-339.
Zhang Y,Shi B L.Integrated effects of climate change on winter wheat production in east Henan[J].Jiangsu Agricul- tural Science,2015,43(2):336-339.(in Chinese)
[37] 刘淑云,谷卫刚,尚明华,等.鲁西北生育期降水与小麦产量相关关系回归模型研究[J].作物杂志,2013,24 (6):90-94.
Liu S Y,Gu W G,Shang M H,et al.Optimum regression model between rainfall in wheat growth period and wheat yield[J].Crops,2013,24(6):90-94.(in Chinese)
[38] 罗蒋梅,王建林,申双和,等.影响冬小麦产量的气象要素定量评价模型[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(1):94-99.
Luo J M,Wang J L,Shen S H,et al.Quantitative evaluating model for meteorological factor effects on winter wheat yield[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2009, 32(1):94-99.(in Chinese)
[39] 钱锦霞,郭建平.郑州地区冬小麦产量构成要素的回归模型[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(4):500-504.
Qian J X,Guo J P.Regression models of winter wheat yield components in Zhengzhou area[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2012,23(4):500-504.(in Chinese)
[40] Lobell D B,Sibley A,Ortizmonasterio J I.Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,2(3):186-189.
[41] 杨桂霞,赵广才,许轲,等.播期和密度对冬小麦籽粒产量和营养品质及生理指标的影响[J].麦类作物学报,2010, 30(4):687-692.
Yang G X,Zhao G C,Xu K,et al.Effect of sowing date and density on grain yield and nutrition quality and physiolo- gical index of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2010,30(4):687-692. (in Chinese)
[42] 王同花,李援农.起垄覆膜沟播对冬小麦土壤水分利用效率及土壤温度的影响[J].中国农村水利水电,2011,(1): 46-49.
Wang T H,Li Y N.Effect of furrow planting winter wheat with plastic film mulching on water-use efficiency and soil temperature[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011,(1): 46-49.(in Chinese)
[43] 李晓林,白志元,杨子博,等.黄淮麦区部分主推冬小麦品种越冬及拔节期的抗寒生理研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(1):40-48.
Li X L,Bai Z Y,Yang Z B,et al.Cold resistant physiology of some main wheat varieties at wintering and jointing stages in Huanghuai area[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University, 2013,41(1):40-48.(in Chinese)
[44] 高永刚,顾红,姬菊枝,等.近43年来黑龙江气候变化对农作物产量影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(4): 532-538.
Gao Y G,Gu H,Ji J Z,et al.Simulation study of climate change impact on crop yield in Heilongjiang Province from 1961to 2003[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007,18(4): 532-538.(in Chinese)
[45] 张明伟,邓辉,李贵才,等.模型模拟华北地区气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(4): 45-49.
Zhang M W,Deng H,Li G C,et al.Simulation study on impacts of climate change on the production of winter wheat in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2011,32(4):45-49.(in Chinese)
[46] 熊淑萍,卢中民,吴克远,等.河南省小麦和玉米产量及其有关气候因子分析[J].河南农业大学学报,2014,48(2):123- 129.
Xiong S P,Lu Z M,Wu K Y,et al.Analysis on yield of wheat and maize and related climate factorsin Henan Province[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural University,2014,48(2):123- 129.(in Chinese)
[47] 朱求安,张万昌,余钧辉.基于GIS的空间插值方法研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(2):183-188.
Zhu Q A,Zhang W C,Yu J H.The Spatial Interpolations in GIS[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University,2004,28(2): 183-188.(in Chinese) |